2022-2023 Offseason Blueprint: The One Where they Keep Carlos Correa

If the Twins decide they simply cannot live without Correa, they'll have a much different offseason path spending-wise

From all accounts, it appears Carlos Correa has enjoyed his year with the Minnesota Twins. Correa opting out of his “three-year” contract shouldn’t change the perception of that either — it’s just the nature of the business.

Now, he’s free to shop his wares on the open market for the second straight offseason, this time unencumbered by a labor stoppage and also by the fact that this entire new contract will land a full, tidy commission at the feet of mega agent Scott Boras.

Previous Editions:

• 2022-23 Offseason Blueprint: What I’d Do

So let’s assume the Twins get in on the bidding and land their big fish. Landing him on a one-year deal north of $35 million was already a new frontier for the Twins, so why not pursue the next step by landing the same fish but for much, much more guaranteed money?

Let’s talk to it:

Sign Carlos Correa

Here it is. The big one, Elizabeth.

It sounds as though this could truly happen, based on some reporting from KSTP’s Darren Wolfson.

Twins Farm Report @TwinsFarmReport

The #MNTwins are expected to make Carlos Correa the biggest offer in team history, per @DWolfsonKSTP. They are pushing for a quick(er) decision from C4, and are open to including player options in the contract. The Twins have also “reached out” to Swanson.

Wolfson’s reporting can be heard here (about 14ish minutes in):

So, what would this mean?

Of course, it would mean the Twins handing out the biggest contract in franchise history. It would not only eclipse, but dwarf the eight-year, $184 million deal Joe Mauer signed before the 2010 season, both in years, total money and average annual value (AAV).

Can Correa pass the $35.1 million he made last year on a longer deal? That’s hard to say. ESPN suggests an eight-year deal worth $265 million — an AAV of $33.1 million.

In my opinion — the Twins should run, not walk to Boras to offer this deal if it gets the job done.

With that said, I’m not entirely sure why Correa would take less this offseason than Corey Seager took last winter (10 years, $325 million) — at least in terms of years. To that end, and based on last year’s deal just slightly eking out the previous all-time high for position players on a single-year basis, I am curious if he won’t also want 10 years and something at the previously listed AAV.

So that would be 10 years and $331 million, giving Correa the title of highest-paid shortstop.

This should be well within the team’s (self-imposed) budget, with Cot’s Contracts estimating an Opening Day payroll of just over $96 million before signing any deal like this.

A better question might be what this leaves the team left in terms of wiggle room to make any other additions to a team that woefully underperformed last season. And while adding Correa is obviously a huge boon to any team…the team still fared the way it did with Correa.

And what else does signing Correa mean?

Well for one, that Royce Lewis’ future is somewhere other than short. This is not a terribly big deal, as he’s still a way off from returning and can’t be considered any sort of guarantee after two torn ACLs in a three-year span. That’s not a slight on the player, just a statement of fact that the Twins will need to hedge with depth against him not being able to contribute, lest they want a team that looks like the September outfit that was barely recognizable from last season’s Opening Day roster.

Lewis could just as easily be the future at third base, with the arm and athleticism to easily handle the position and — at least based on his first MLB cameo — enough bat, to boot.

It doesn’t feel like the Twins will want to revisit the outfield experiment, for better or worse. That shouldn’t be judged on the fact that it almost immediately resulted in a serious injury, but rather that it was hastily planned and resulted in the worst luck possible.

Lewis is clearly athletic enough to handle the outfield, but it’s not a front-burner issue for the Twins whatsoever.

What the signing of Correa also means, however, is a pretty quiet rest of the offseason. It would be terrific to see the Twins stretch the budget and sign Carlos Rodon as well, then filter through the rest of free agency to maybe find a right-handed bat, a second catcher and then scour the market late for a reliever or two — but that just doesn’t seem likely.

We’re again not dealing in specifics money-wise like other places might, mostly because we don’t know how the Twins view the budget — and that a lot of it can be flipped on its head with a trade of Max Kepler, Gio Urshela or both.

So what does the rest of the offseason hold if the Twins sign Correa? I’m glad you asked.

Sign a Second-Tier Starter

The sweet spot here would be signing Chris Bassitt to a two-year deal worth, say, $18 million per season. I still think that might be blowing past what the team might be willing to do for a starting pitcher, but he’d be an ideal fit as the Opening Day starter on a pitching rotation that suddenly looks like a well-developed, experienced group.

As noted in the previous blueprint, the second tier is still pretty crowded — even with Tyler Anderson coming off the board Tuesday afternoon to the Los Angeles Angels.

If the Twins can’t land Bassitt, I’m in on Noah Syndergaard. As I said in the other blueprint:

I want Noah Syndergaard here. I think he’s a tremendous gamble with guys coming back from Tommy John surgery often looking better in Year 2, and I think he’d cost a very reasonable sum compared to what he might have garnered if he’d hit free agency after one of his big years with the Mets rather than a respectable year between the Angels and Phillies.

But again, I wouldn’t be opposed to Andrew Heaney, Mike Clevinger, Zach Eflin, Corey Kluber, Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana, Ross Stripling and Michael Wacha.

This is a lot less enthusing for Twins fans than landing Rodon — and I get that. But again, this is the bed that is made if the team lands Correa for the long term.

Sign Omar Narvaez

As noted before, he’s a left-handed hitter (good platoon for Ryan Jeffers), solid defensively and coming off a down offensive season. If he’ll sign for one year and $4-5 million, that’s a really nice fit.

Wait until the end of the offseason and sign a cheap reliever or two

Guys in the relief market will fly off the shelves fairly quickly, but I’m not going to be surprised when Derek Falvey and Thad Levine target one or two guys near the end of the winter who fit some sort of parameters (one-year deals to slider throwers, etc.). I like Archie Bradley in this spot.

Bradley, who turned 30 in August, wasn’t very good for the Angels last year (4.82 ERA/3.33 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, minus-0.4 bWAR), but he has a strong record of being solid when healthy, and would only be expected to reprise something similar to the role Michael Fulmer held when he was with the Twins.

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So, where does this leave us?

C- Ryan Jeffers
1B- Jose Miranda
2B- Jorge Polanco
3B- Gio Urshela
SS- Carlos Correa
LF- Alex Kirilloff/Trevor Larnach
CF- Byron Buxton
RF- Max Kepler
DH- Luis Arraez

C- Omar Narvaez
IF- Nick Gordon
OF- Kyle Garlick
OF- Whoever doesn’t start in LF

SP- Tyler Mahle
SP- Sonny Gray
SP- Noah Syndergaard
SP- Joe Ryan
SP- Bailey Ober/Louie Varland/Josh Winder/Simeon Woods Richardson

RP- Jhoan Duran
RP- Jorge Lopez
RP- Griffin Jax
RP- Jorge Alcala
RP- Kenta Maeda
RP- Caleb Thielbar
RP- Emilio Pagan/Jovani Moran
RP- Archie Bradley

Extra pitchers bin: Ronny Henriquez, Chris Paddack (hurt), Trevor Megill, Cole Sands

The final analysis:

I believe this also is a division-winning team — but will need to stay healthy in the pitching staff to do so.