A Mock Twins Trade Deadline (Part II: Club Control Edition)

The Minnesota Twins got a jump-start on the trade deadline by flipping Nelson Cruz and minor league pitcher Calvin Faucher to the Tampa Bay Rays for pitching prospects Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman last Thursday afternoon.

In fact, click here to see Part I of this series on mocking the deadline for the Twins.

We’ll talk about the Cruz deal more in detail later on here, but it’s not an uncommon trade pairing. The Twins matched up on the Matt Garza-for-Delmon Young deal many moons ago, and more recently swapped infielder Jermaine Palacios for starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi prior to the 2018 season.

There was no mystery which direction the deadline might take for the Twins, so the Cruz deal was largely the removal of a band-aid obscuring a wound that just hasn’t healed all season long.

This was the first of what could be many moves for the Twins — but will at least most certainly include the sloughing off of impending free agents to teams who can better use their services down the stretch run.

So here, less than a week before the trade deadline, we’ll try to find some ideal trade fits and take a stab at what they might bring back in a trade from said team. Sounds like fun, right?

Let’s talk to it (in order of perceived likelihood of being dealt):

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Starter Jose Berrios

To say things have changed recently is an understatement. When I was initially sketching this series out, Berrios was nowhere near the top of this list. In fact, he was behind not only Taylor Rogers, but also Byron Buxton once news of extension talks being at an impasse went public.

The continued steam heading into the final day of talks before the deadline is that Minnesota’s price remains high; justifiably so since he’s probably the second-most attractive pitcher available on the market after Max Scherzer. Beyond that, he carries another year of control before he’s eligible for free agency.

He’s young, he’s durable, he’s good and he’ll come with another year of club control — so why are the Twins not just keeping him?

In this case, it’s about being opportunistic.

While the front office maintains belief that this season has been just a blip on the radar, it’s clear going into 2022 with the status quo just won’t work. Dealing Berrios at his peak value allows them to maximize their return on him, and if they focus on most developed prospects or young MLB talent in return, that can not only help prop the contention window back open but also minimize the risk of such a deal blowing up in their collective faces.

Then again, quality is quality and getting back a top prospect in A-ball sure beats getting back a 24-year-old Triple-A up-down guy who has seen some of the prospect luster wear off. There’s going to be a lot of nuance here.

The Twins did a little of all of the above in the Johan Santana deal with Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey, Carlos Gomez and Deolis Guerra and that was largely a failure. Here’s to not making the same mistake twice.

The Possible Fits: San Diego, Los Angeles (N), Toronto, Boston, Seattle, New York (N)

Possible Trades:

From San Diego — Berrios for SS CJ Abrams (No. 2 on MLB.com’s Top 30), LHP Ethan Elliott (No. 12) and RHP Mason Fox (No. 22)

Readers will notice a fairly similar pattern to each of these proposals: one of the team’s top prospects, one upper-mid tier and then a lottery ticket based on tools. Could the Twins be the team to finally pry Abrams away in a deal for a pitcher? It’s hard to say, but San Diego’s infield is pretty stacked and with, as noted, another year of control Berrios is a nice fit here.

Elliott is short on velocity from the left side but his strikeout numbers are eye-popping, and Fox checks the box with a high-spin fastball that can run in the mid 90s.

I would not oppose a deal for Mackenzie Gore instead of Abrams.

From Los Angeles — Berrios for RHP Josiah Gray (No. 2 on MLB.com’s Top 30), INF Jacob Amaya (No. 10) and RHP Kendall Williams (No. 22)

I’ve been talking about a possible Dodgers trade with a writer friend of mine and I just haven’t felt comfortable with many of the offers. I could see Dustin May (injured) coming back in the trade, but I’m also not sure how much risk the Twins want to take on in addition to their public insistence that 2022 is not already a lost season.

Gray is an athletic righty who is already getting his feet wet in the big leagues, and his numbers this year in Oklahoma City — albeit just 15.2 innings — are awe-inspiring: 22 strikeouts against just two walks and eight hits allowed.

Amaya is a sure-fire future shortstop, which would probably be harder to take with Corey Seager headed for free agency if not for Gavin Lux, and while there isn’t a ton of power here, he’s shown the ability to take walks.

Williams is a big-bodied righty (6’6”, 205 lbs) who was part of the trade for Ross Stripling from the Blue Jays. He’ll be 21 in August and is holding his own at Low-A Rancho Cucamonga (4.09 ERA in 55.0 innings, 7.7 K/9, 1.29 WHIP).

From Toronto — Berrios for INF Jordan Groshans (No. 3 on MLB.com’s Top 30), RHP CJ Van Eyk (No. 9) and INF/OF Samad Taylor (No. 28)

I opted for Groshans over Austin Martin because I think the Blue Jays — as stacked as they are already offensively — will value the added versatility the latter brings by playing infield and outfield.

It’s a horse apiece for the Twins, who could use long-term stability at short but wouldn’t be choosy if it comes down to adding a very good position player. I personally view Martin better but Groshans is having the better season at present.

Van Eyk is a pitchability type who works in the low 90s but draws good reviews for his maturity on the mound. Since the Twins aren’t getting Martin in the deal, they’ll grab some versatility in Taylor, who has played second, third, short and left at Double-A New Hampshire this year while hitting an incredible .305/.388/.538 in 245 plate appearances.

From Boston — Berrios for INF Jeter Downs (No. 2 in MLB.com’s Top 30), SP Jay Groome (No. 7) and OF Jeisson Rosario (No. 22)

I’m not really sure I see it, honestly. Downs is having a brutal season (.584 OPS) at Worcester, but it’s probably him or Jarren Duran as headliners and I just don’t see the Sox moving the latter. Downs has been an accomplished prospect for quite some time now, even despite moving through three organizations through just four seasons.

Groome is entirely an upside play here, as he’s thrown just 118.1 professional innings since being drafted in 2016. He’s a lefty big on talent and just big in general, but he’s only at High-A — and on the 40-man roster — with a 5.16 ERA and 75-24 K/BB ratio in 52.1 innings.

Rosario is a well-respected prospect out of the Dominican Republic who was aggressively assigned to Double-A Portland in his first season in the Red Sox organization — he came over from the Padres in the Mitch Moreland trade — and he’s responded by hitting just .231/.332/.288 through 270 plate appearances. This would also be another upside play.

From Seattle — Berrios for SS Noelvi Marte (No. 5 on MLB.com’s Top 30), RHP Juan Then (No. 7) and RHP Sam Carlson (No. 21)

This is maybe the package I’m most intrigued by, as I believe Marte has serious helium as a teenager — turns 20 in October — at Low-A Modesto. He’s hitting .276/.362/.462 while playing exclusively shortstop, exhibiting strong plate discipline at an early age as he moves up prospect lists. He was No. 92 on Baseball America’s list last season and bumped up to No. 73 this season, and in their midseason update, he’s skyrocketed to No. 10.

Then has big-time velocity but has had trouble harnessing it (4.0 BB/9 at High-A Everett this season) and of course you know I had to grab #OneOfUs in Carlson, the Burnsville native who has faced myriad arm problems since being drafted in 2017. He’s pitched just 66.0 innings due to various reasons — including COVID — and he’s fanned well over a batter per inning (10.5 K/9) with more than his fair share of walks (4.9 BB/9). He’s also an upside play.

From New York — Berrios for SS Ronny Mauricio (No. 2 on MLB.com’s Top 30), 3B Mark Vientos (No. 8) and RHP Marcel Renteria (No. 24)

I don’t know if any team listed needs pitching more than the Mets, and I had heard some rumors that they were willing to dangle Mauricio in a deal — most likely due to getting Francisco Lindor locked down long term.

Mauricio is slashing a respectable .246/.287/.454 at High-A Brooklyn while only being 20, and it seems as though he should be able to stay at shortstop at the very least in the near term, if not longer.

Vientos has some big-time power and a big arm from the hot corner, and could be more attainable with Brett Baty moving up the organizational rungs in Mets-land.

Renteria is a slightly built righty (5’11”, 185 lbs) who is known for his strikeouts and his slider, but has seen his command go all over the map through four minor-league seasons. He, again, would be an upside play.

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Reliever Taylor Rogers

It’s unclear how much less likely moving Rogers is given the state of his middle finger — how’s that for a sentence? — but like Berrios, he’d bring with another year of control. With that said, acquiring relievers is more about the right now in terms of value, so it’s hard for me to see Rogers moving before the offseason, if at all.

It might be an opportunistic time for the Twins to move Rogers, though. It felt as though they were considering non-tendering him after an uneven 2020, and his last year of arbitration eligibility is not going to be cheap (probably in excess of $8 million or so), so if the Twins can strike now for a maybe a package of two of some team’s top-10 prospects (lower half, obviously), it might be a good time to do so.

The Possible Fits:

Almost everybody needs high-end relievers.

Possible Trades:

Not really worth diving into here, but if he’s moved it’s almost certainly going to be for good value.

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Center Fielder Byron Buxton

It sounded as though neither the Twins’ side nor Buxton’s side was all too pleased reports of a contractual stalemate came out last week, so here we are. I still think there’s potential of getting a deal done in the offseason — honestly, you could say deal as in trade or extension, I suppose — when his value is a bit clearer based on how well, and often, he plays during the rest of the season.

The price for Buxton would be high, and for good reason. And like with Berrios, the getting might be as good as it ever will if the Twins aren’t convinced they can keep the oft-injured road runner long-term.

The Possible Fits: Braves, Phillies

Possible Trades:

From Atlanta — OF Cristian Pache (No. 1 on MLB.com’s Top 30) and RHP Jasseel De La Cruz (No. 8)

This is all about upside, as Pache has routinely dotted the top of global prospect lists for quite some time, while De La Cruz is big on stuff (97-98 mph fastball) but has seen fairly shaky results at Triple-A Gwinnett (9.3 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, 1.50 WHIP, 5.89 ERA in 47.1 innings).

Pache turns 23 in November, and has hit just .119/.157/.209 through 72 big-league plate appearances, but the talent looms large. He’s not exactly killing it in Triple-A since being sent back in June (.715 OPS), though he has a .858 OPS over his last 17 games down there.

From Philadelphia — RHP Francisco Morales (No. 3 on MLB.com’s Top 30), RHP Adonis Medina (No. 10) and OF Mickey Moniak (No. 11)

Morales is a tall, wiry righty who can light up the zone — but not necessarily fill it up. He’s not doing all that well at Double-A Reading this season (6.95 ERA in 55.2 IP, 1.55 WHIP) but a lot of pitching this season needs to be viewed through a different lens after a completely squashed 2020 minor-league season. These are the kinds of guys stuff-wise the Twins should be targeting.

Medina can be a big-time groundball guy with a fastball that has some sink and can run into the mid 90s. He had a brief big-league cameo in 2020, but has also looked fairly shaky in 2021 at Lehigh Valley (5.48 ERA in 46.0 innings, 7.0 K/9 and 1.50 WHIP).

Moniak, in this case, would just be a throw-in to mitigate the immense risk of the other two. He just turned 23 in May and has played some in the big leagues, but so far the results have not been great (.502 OPS in just 47 plate appearances).

He’s having a decent season at Triple-A Lehigh Valley (.258/.311/.498) with 27 of his 60 hits going for extra bases. It’ll be worth watching if he can keep that up because his on-base skills have not been a strong suit so far since the Phils took him first overall back in 2016.

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Third Baseman Josh Donaldson

I really don’t see this happening, but we’ve heard enough of it from the Heymans of the world that we should at least address it. The optics of dealing a player less than halfway through a four-year deal are not good at all, and given his contractual situation, it would also not look good in terms of return for a team that would probably end up playing Jose Miranda at third the rest of the way.

The Possible Fits: New York (N)

Possible Trades:

From New York — INF/OF Carlos Cortes (No. 17 on MLB.com’s Top 30)

Yeah, I don’t like it either.

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To be brief, the Twins did very, very well in their trading of Nelson Cruz. Ryan, who is starting for Team USA in Tokyo on Thursday, while Strotman will join the St. Paul Saints and might be up with the Twins in fairly short order, as he’s already on the 40-man roster.

I see Ryan as similar to Jake Odorizzi or Scott Baker as a guy who can work with a fastball that might not touch 95 mph very often, but plays up in the zone. Strotman I know less about, but his walk issues have largely been due to him coming back from Tommy John surgery.

But either way, if one or the other — or both — becomes a mainstay in the Twins’ rotation, even for a short period of time, they did well. Not only did they improve in the future, but they did right by a veteran who gave the team everything he had in his two-plus years here.

And….he could possibly re-sign in the offseason. We’ll see.