#AskBW (2.20.23): Strengths and Weaknesses, Catcher Timeshares, Best Rotations & More
You asked questions; I answered them
Welcome back to another edition of Q&A at Access Twins called “#AskBW.”
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Tweet @brandon_warne or @accesstwins with the hashtag #askBW
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Should be pretty easy, right? Let’s talk to it:
I really do think it would be wise to add another hitter, but I’m just not certain the Twins see it the same way I do. I would be on board with bringing in Jurickson Profar as a Swiss Army Knife or Luke Voit to mix and match at first base and DH, but to this point the Twins don’t seem to be inclined to do the same.
I also think it would behoove the Twins to make the bullpen one pitcher deeper, and it seems as though that could be possible by signing Brad Hand. Ideally, I thought Matt Moore or Michael Fulmer made more sense than Hand, but I’m not opposed to one more dart-throw veteran. Archie Bradley also comes to mind from that group.
But these are relatively small gripes, all things considered. This is a deep roster that should be very, very competitive as long as guys stay healthy.
I’m leaning toward a 60-40 timeshare in favor of Christian Vazquez. I think Ryan Jeffers’ ultimate potential is that of a Vazquez-type player — probably better at defense than offense, but not a total zero at the plate by any stretch — but for now the Twins can mix and match based on how either player is playing at a given time.
And if one or the other gets injured, they still have a starting-caliber catcher at their disposal. Depending on how you viewed Gary Sanchez last season, I don’t think you can necessarily say the same with the 2023 team.
Sure.
So because I’m a stat geek like you all know I am, I went in and found the team’s rotation WAR for each season since 1991 via Fangraphs, and sorted in descending order.
There are a few surprises. First, it’s that the 2019 team has the highest collective fWAR in that time frame (16.4). The 1991 team is actually eighth.
Here’s the whole top 10:
2019 - 16.4
2004 - 15.9
2005 - 15.0
1992 - 15.0
2010 - 14.5
2015 - 13.5
2006 - 12.5
1991 - 12.4
2003 - 12.2
1993 - 12.0
One thing that stands out to me is how high some of the non-playoff teams ranked. The 2005 season was fairly disappointing yet still ranks among the top three. I was not expecting 1993 to make any sort of appearance at all.
But in a way, it shouldn’t be surprising to see rotations propped up by Johan Santana — who also should have won the Cy Young in 2005 — as opposed to rotations that were more a sum of their parts, like 2019’s was.
This isn’t an exercise that can strictly be decided by stats, either. The 1991 bunch still deserves credit for winning the World Series. Besides that, season-long results aren’t always what goes into how good a rotation was.
For that reason, and that reason alone, I’m taking the 2006 rotation over this year’s. Very few, if any, Twins rotations can compete with Santana and Francisco Liriano at the front end, a dependable-if-declining Brad Radke in the middle and youngsters Boof Bonser, Scott Baker and Matt Garza in there as well.
The main thing that holds the group back is that the youngsters weren’t quite there yet, and Carlos Silva still made 31 starts with an ERA approaching 6.00. But in terms of outright domination and who I’d want to start in a playoff series, I’m taking 2006, then 2023 and finally 2019.
So I can’t speak for anyone else but my go-to resource for depth chart matters is Roster Resource which resides at Fangraphs right here.
In this instance, it has the Twins rolling with Max Kepler in right, Joey Gallo in left, Alex Kirilloff at first, Trevor Larnach on the bench and Nick Gordon at DH.
So in theory is it possible? Yes.
But again that’s why I think they need to add one more hitter. Gordon can’t — and frankly, won’t — be considered anything close to an everyday DH. Larnach could probably fill that role capably if healthy, but I don’t think having AK and Larnach holding down two roster spots guaranteed with Gordon listed as the de facto “DH” is good business.
I think I’d probably sign someone like Voit — a good right-handed stick, but not nearly so good the team couldn’t DFA him if he struggles — and move Gordon to the super utility role with Larnach starting the season in St. Paul.
That’s just how I’d roll. And if you like Profar better, you can throw him in there too. I’m just not sure what role he’d fill as I don’t think he’d be a fit at DH, first base or third base as a starter.
Then again, if the price is low enough — party on.
Byron Buxton will be a six-win player this year. He’s my pick.
I’m all-in on Emmanuel Rodriguez this season, and going with him over Brooks Lee because frankly I’m not sure if Lee will play the whole season in the minor leagues — if you catch my drift.
Rodriguez just has it all for me. He has power, a terrific eye at the plate and is a respectable fielder, besides. I see him winning that award if he can put it all together this season.
As for pitcher, I’m looking at Marco Raya here. If he can sustain the fastball tick-up he had coming out of high school from the low-90s to what is now reportedly in the mid-90s, I think the sky’s the limit — even if he’s not particularly tall.
As for a breakout? I know people are all over Yasser Mercedes, so I’ll go with this being the year Keoni Cavaco finally puts everything together and gets his name back on the radar in an organization that is rich with pretty good infield prospects.
I’ll take this opportunity to say that I bought one of the DJ Skee Twins 1991 backpacks and it’s sick as hell.
For me, it’s Vazquez. We just aren’t talking enough about how he can transform this team from a defensive standpoint. He’s right around respectable offensively — some years more, others less — but he should be an anchor for them behind the plate. A sight for sore eyes indeed.
I don’t know if you’ve ever played with a Magic 8 ball, but I would say “signs point to yes.”
Don’t get it twisted — it’s still just workouts and we haven’t even see the team play non-meaningful games, let along meaningful games. But the Twins are doing and saying all the right things with Maeda, who is entering his age-35 season. I just don’t think there’s much reason to protect a guy at that stage of his career in hopes of making his recovery out to be something it’s not.
But with that said, he’s 35. I think the best one could hope for is that he splits the difference between 2020-21 — which is still a 3.90 ERA and 110 ERA+. That would most definitely be helpful from a guy who’ll probably be considered the No. 4 or 5 starter.
For those who won’t know the back story — I am blocked by Nick on Twitter despite never tagging him or saying anything outright mean or nasty. All I believe I’ve said is that I don’t really see him being a big-time MLB factor in the future.
Has he proven me wrong? I don’t know if I’d go that far, but he had a damn fine 2022 (.272/.316/.427 for a 113 OPS+) and I don’t have any ill will toward him either way. He’ll play an important role this season.
For a more obvious answer, I think it’s Jeffers. I just still have — for some reason — a bigger belief in the bat. I also love, love, love the defense.
But if we want to go a bit further off the radar — how about Jovani Moran? Lefties with a big fastball like his don’t come around all that often, but I’ve become smitten with his changeup the more I’ve seen.
Consider:
I don’t know what the future looks like as far as Moran developing a breaking ball, but I still think he can be a damn fine reliever with a fastball-changeup combo like he has.