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#AskBW (8.2.22): Trade Deadline Edition

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#AskBW (8.2.22): Trade Deadline Edition

Brandon Warne
Aug 2, 2022
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#AskBW (8.2.22): Trade Deadline Edition

accesstwins.substack.com

Welcome back to a weekly edition of Q&A at Access Twins called “#AskBW.”

If you’d like to be involved, there are a few ways you can do so:

Access Twins is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

  • Tweet @brandon_warne or @accesstwins with the hashtag #askBW

  • if Twitter isn’t your thing, send an email to brandon.r.warne@gmail.com with the subject “Monday Mailbag/Friday Files”

  • Watch for sporadic Facebook posts asking for questions

Should be pretty easy, right? Let’s talk to it:

Twitter avatar for @MattEbnet
Matt Ebnet @MattEbnet
@Brandon_Warne Where Frankie
2:12 PM ∙ Aug 1, 2022
Twitter avatar for @JOECOOLSKOL
Prince Joe Cool @JOECOOLSKOL
@Brandon_Warne Where Frankie?
2:02 PM ∙ Aug 1, 2022
Twitter avatar for @danielcarlson
Danny C @danielcarlson
@Brandon_Warne Where Frankie
2:01 PM ∙ Aug 1, 2022

He’s a Yankee, sadly. Today, we memorialize the end of a very good meme. Yankee Montas would have been a great addition for the Twins, but I’m still holding out hope they add a starter of that caliber or close to it.

Twitter avatar for @Extremelixer
Extremelixer @Extremelixer
@Brandon_Warne With the pitching talent in the minors seeming to not really be developing as expected howbdo we go about fixing this issue? Its going to close our window to win alot sooner than many of us realize and we seem to strike out quite often on landing the bigger free agent pitchers.
2:22 PM ∙ Aug 1, 2022

I think the strategy, to this point, was to try tread water until the pitching prospects this front office culvitated were ready to be harvested, to force a painful metaphor.

But there is a lot of risk in that approach. Covid canceled a season. Guys have gotten hurt, stagnated or both. It’s worth noting that Simeon Woods Richardson, Louie Varland, Steve Hajjar and a few others have popped up this season amidst the struggles of Jordan Balazovic, Blayne Enlow and others.

In the meantime, the Twins probably have to take a more broad approach, trading for pretty good starters with more club control by thinning out the herd, so to speak, from their cadre of offensive prospects. From my perspective, the Twins are well stocked with shortstop-ish prospects and guys who can mash but only really fake it defensively at a corner.

Trade those guys while they have value. Is Matt Wallner more likely to be Daniel Palka or Joey Gallo? I don’t know the answer to that, but I suspect the former.

Twitter avatar for @pablosjohnson
Paul Johnson @pablosjohnson
@Brandon_Warne What’s the best meal you’ve ever had?
2:24 PM ∙ Aug 1, 2022

Wasn’t expecting this question. Hmm.

There was a little Peruvian place near where I lived about 10 years ago that had an incredible seafood paella. That’s on the list.

I also had a really excellent burger at Pickwick in Duluth that I keep coming back to.

Other than that, I’m wracking my brain. I’m a pretty simple guy to please food-wise. I like well-cooked meat — as in quality, not a steak cooked like a puck — with potato salad and a good drink. That’s an awesome meal for me.

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Jacob Booth @JacobBooth6
@Brandon_Warne Do you honestly think the Twins will make a move that will net us a setup man or at least a #2 starter? I have a feeling it will be lower end relievers, or no moves and treat callups of Brad Peacock, Aaron Sanchez, etc as "moves"
3:33 PM ∙ Aug 1, 2022

So we’ve already seen the Twins land Lopez, which sort of takes this question and flushes it a bit. But let’s talk about No. 2 starters. I really do think the Twins land a Mahle or Rodon. It just doesn’t make sense to me to bolster the bullpen the way they did with the aforementioned Lopez without going a step further in the rotation, where the Twins are arguably as vulnerable.

Twitter avatar for @Four_Six_Three
J. Olson @Four_Six_Three
@Brandon_Warne With Buck finally having a healthy-ish All-Star season, getting Correa, trading for Gray, leading the Central… the question is “If not now, when?” Do the #MNTwins have enough young talent, either in the farm or on the MLB club, to swing a WS push-type trade?
3:35 PM ∙ Aug 1, 2022

Good question — one I covered here in depth with the exact same words.

Now is the time to push the chips into the middle of the table. What the Twins lack in high-end prospects, they have in guys who can really hit which I also think will appeal to teams. The trade return on Lopez wasn’t that bad either, so I think the market is somehow favoring buyers right now which is strange to say.

Twitter avatar for @bhacken
Brodie Hacken @bhacken
@Brandon_Warne I've got a theory that Falvine are SO analytical that they are hell-bent on making sure whatever trade they make, they win on paper. While I get it, sometimes you have to "lose the trade" to win (think Gobert). Do you think there's some "paralysis by analysis" going on with them?
2:33 PM ∙ Aug 1, 2022

My theory with the Gobert trade was that it’s really hard to lose an NBA deal where you get the best player. Quality will always trump quantity (like we saw with the Kevin Garnett deal).

But with that said, I think you could be onto something. I don’t think it’s quite to the level of Tom Thibodeau preferring to fail his way rather than succeed someone else’s, but more like Joe Mauer not swinging at first pitches even if they’re grooved fastballs.

Does that mean they can’t be successful? Mauer is — at least in my estimation — going to be a Hall of Famer despite this perceived flaw. Can the Twins win a World Series with Falvey and Levine as head men? I do believe so. But I also think there have been stops along the way that have made people (rightfully) question the direction.

Twitter avatar for @BuxtonSZN
Buck MVP 2022 @BuxtonSZN
@Brandon_Warne What is the biggest deadline move the Twins have ever made and do you think they can make a bigger splash then that one?
4:54 PM ∙ Aug 1, 2022

Ever? Is it Rick Reed for Matt Lawton? I’m going to have to wrack my brain. Shannon Stewart for Bobby Kielty? Orlando Cabrera for Tyler Ladendorf?

I think there’s a very good chance they blow that away sometime before this deadline. *fingers crossed*

Twitter avatar for @milkierthanyou
milky @milkierthanyou
@Brandon_Warne Do you see the Reds asking for more lower level prospects for Mahle or would they be content with a package led by like Steer/Wallner? I know a lot of their recent additions aren’t close to the big leagues like Marte or Petty.
3:15 PM ∙ Aug 1, 2022

It’s a valid question, though I don’t think they’d be boxed into anything like that. They have needs — and they are vast. Chances are they’re very familiar with the Twins’ system from that negotiation. I like the chances of the Twins being in the mix to land Mahle before the deadline, and the prospects you’re talking about should be near the front of the line.

Twitter avatar for @NorthStarsNHL
Minnesota North Star @NorthStarsNHL
@Brandon_Warne How disappointed will I be either when nothing happens or a very underwhelmed deadline happens?
2:21 PM ∙ Aug 1, 2022

You should be very disappointed if nothing else besides Lopez happens. The Twins still have needs — and big ones. The Lopez deal is excellent, but not enough by itself.

Twitter avatar for @NorwegianPurple
ThePurpleNorwegian @NorwegianPurple
@Brandon_Warne Who will be acquired by the Twins during the 11 hours yet to come before the deadline? Starting pitcher ______. Relief Pitcher1 ______. Relief Pitcher2 ________. Cather. _______. Corner Outfield ______. Fill in the blanks.
11:40 AM ∙ Aug 2, 2022

I’ll take a stab.

  1. Nathan Eovaldi (hoping for Mahle/Rodon)

  2. Jorge Lopez (gimme)

  3. Mychal Givens (prefer Fulmer or Gregory Soto)

  4. Kurt Suzuki

  5. Joey Gallo (I would be OK with Nelson Cruz, Yadiel Hernandez or someone of that caliber here)

Twitter avatar for @WaterandIceMN
Water & Ice Outdoors @WaterandIceMN
@Brandon_Warne In all seriousness, why doesn’t this regime value pitching? It’s pretty obvious they think they can peace together old washed up arms with up and coming (so called) arms every year and it just doesn’t work. This club needs a new FO if we ever want to see strong pitching here.
2:18 PM ∙ Aug 1, 2022

I said it above and will say it again, but I think they do value pitching. It’s just a matter of creating a pipeline that can sustainably produce Nos. 2-3 starters — like Cleveland has. Every now and then, an ace will pop up. The team also has to supplement the group with outside free agents — something Cleveland hasn’t done and won’t do — but they’ve been spurned by some pretty big ones in recent seasons (like Zack Wheeler).

I think the Twins’ pitching pipeline has been stunted in ways both foreseeable and unforeseeable, but I think they’re at least on the right track. There’s always going to be attrition. But I think they’re taking enough stabs in that respect that they can figure this out within the next year.

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#AskBW (8.2.22): Trade Deadline Edition

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