Can We Talk About Carlos Correa?
The shortstop's future could be murkier than we might have thought a few months; why, and how does it affect the Twins?
When Carlos Correa agreed to a three-year deal with opt-outs after each year in the wee hours of March 19, it didn’t take long for the brain geniuses online to deduce that it was a one-year deal with a pair of safety nets.
Well, one might wonder how close Correa is to deploying one of those safety nets.
The reality is, probably still not that close. But the fact that anyone is even thinking about it seems worth discussing.
Overall, Correa is having a perfectly solid season. According to Baseball Reference, he’s been worth nearly three wins (2.8). Fangraphs is a bit less convinced (1.7).
Regardless, Correa has played at least acceptable defense while hitting about 20 percent above league average (121 wRC+/123 OPS+).
Why would any player reconsider opting out in a season like this?
Well for one, if Correa has his eyes on the largest payday possible — years and dollars, that is — he’d be better suited to do it coming off a strong year next year, or failing that, 2024. If that doesn’t come to fruition, he’s still earned a tidy sum over $100 million for his time with the Twins, and is still only 30 when hitting the free agent market.
If Correa opts out this season, he’s competing with the likes of Andrelton Simmons (kidding), Dansby Swanson, Xander Bogaerts and Trea Turner for free agency dollars at shortstop.
Is Correa the best of that quartet? You could make that case. Is he playing the best right now? No, that probably goes to Swanson. Is Correa the youngest? OK, there’s one thing that he has a leg up on the rest at.
Swanson might be playing the best this season, but his track record isn’t super long. With that said, he’ll turn 29 in February, has been incredible defensively (despite 93 career wRC+) and we still saw Marcus Semien get massively paid by the Rangers despite a relatively short track record while heading into his age-31 season.
Furthermore, will Swanson even leave Atlanta? After the Freddie Freeman fiasco, it feels like the Braves are unlikely to make the same mistake twice.
But for all intents and purposes, we have to consider Swanson as an option. The range between what Correa was reportedly expecting last offseason (10 years, $300ish million) to what Trevor Story got from the Red Sox (six years, $140 million) is pretty vast.
Down year aside, Story has been one hell of a ballplayer. Either the Red Sox got a really, really good deal, or the market will only bear so many shortstops in the $200-300 million range.
On the plus side for Correa, Semien and Corey Seager both got paid in a market that was flush with shortstops — just like this year’s will be.
Is there more money in a market where a player is the No. 1 player with a bullet?
Next season, the free-agent market would ostensibly be Correa, Amed Rosario, Brandon Crawford, Elvis Andrus and possibly Paul Dejong and Tim Anderson if their teams decline options (yes, and no, in that order).
For what it’s worth, the preliminary look at the 2025 class includes Correa, Anderson, Jorge Polanco ($12 million team option) and Willy Adames. This is yet another chance to cash in.
In that sense, Correa is the head of the class (either year) by a long shot and would still only be heading into his age-29 or -30 season (which is about in line with what the other guys in this year’s class are, and they’re still going to get PAID).
Freddie Freeman was by far the best first baseman on the marketplace this season, and got six years and $162 million ($27 million AAV) despite being on the wrong side of 30. The next-largest AAV, at least according to Spotrac, was Anthony Rizzo at $16 million per year (and just two years despite being almost exactly the same age).
First base is a tricky position to compare to shortstop, but I think you could make the case that Correa is as much better than Rosario — my second-favorite shortstop in the class — as Freeman is over Rizzo. The gap might, in fact, be larger depending on what Rosario’s walk year looks like, as he’s looked solid this season.
So how do we make that comparison fit for a shortstop? I’m not entirely sure other than maybe the percentage of what each player got? Rizzo’s AAV is 59.2 percent of Freeman’s but at a much shorter term.
I could see Rosario getting a shorter deal for 60 percent of Correa’s AAV, but at $30 million for Correa that’s $18 million for Rosario. Not sure I see that, or if I really care about the comparison this comes up with in the first place.
Either way, if Correa has lost money this season by being merely good instead of elite, opting in makes some sense. If his value has fallen from $300 million in a deal to let’s say $180-200 million, he can just hang out on the same deal he had this season with the potential to rebuild that value, as he’s still young enough to do so based on what we’ve seen in the free agent market in recent seasons (typically over 30 gets done dirty).
And if Correa were to falter for a second season in a row — again, falter is a tricky word because he’s been quite good this season — he’s gambled away maybe another $30 million at the expense of adding another $100 million?
I don’t know. I’m not a smart person. I just think he’s not risking that much by opting into next year’s deal with the Twins.
Part of what’s stoking this fire is that Correa has been exceptionally cold of late.
Correa has played 85 games, so let’s break them roughly into thirds to tell the story of his season:
Games 1-30 (April 8-May 24): .270/.344/.391
Games 31-60 (May 25-July 4): .313/.382/.530
Games 61-85 (July 5-present): .200/.290/.358
So obviously the fact that this is any sort of talker is because of how poorly he’s played lately. Before the last stretch, he was hitting .291/.363/.461 and appeared destined for the payday that the lockout more or less took from him.
How long does this funk have to continue for the calculus on Correa’s decision to change? The Twins have played 109 games coming into Wednesday’s action, so there are still plenty of games left for Correa’s decision and course to be altered.
There’s also the dynamic of the Twins and Correa having not discussed a long-term deal to this point. There’s no question the Twins and Correa would like to tear up this deal and write something up that’s close to a decade at a dollar figure both can agree on.
I think the writing on the wall was that Correa took this deal to give himself some time to immerse himself in the city and clubhouse culture, and based on everything that’s been said publicly, that seems to be going well.
But the fact that those talks haven’t happened has me thinking. The Twins don’t need to rush to step on their own feet to give him a 10-year deal if he’s even slightly considering opting back in.
Meanwhile, even if he opts out, it’s not like much changes for the Twins’ chances of signing him. They’ve had the entire year with him. They know the player and vice versa. They may have to outbid other teams, but that A. was already the case before and B. still seems to give them the upper hand as the incumbent.
For the Twins, the prospect of Correa opting back in is a huge boon. For one, finding a shortstop of Correa’s quality at any point is difficult, let alone one that is boxed into a short-term deal.
Secondly, Correa’s presence allows the Twins the chance to ease Royce Lewis back into action while seeing where his future is defensively. Surely Correa will play shortstop to the point where the Twins won’t get much time, if any, to evaluate Lewis at the position. But with that said, they’ll also see his lateral agility/quickness and all that at third base or in the outfield coming off his second major knee surgery.
How to proceed forward with Correa could be instructed by that, with many prospect outlets not convinced Lewis could stay at shortstop before the second ACL, let alone after.
All I’m saying is this — I don’t think the writing is on the wall that Correa is going to opt-out. But I think the fact that anyone is even talking about it is…curious.
Stay tuned.