Is the Jorge Polanco Trade Addition by Subtraction?
It's a phrase mostly geared toward negative outcomes, but could it apply here? Brandon investiages
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Management
“Addition by subtraction.”
It’s a phrase usually reserved for malcontents, or aging overpriced players, or Aubrey Huff leaving the country to chart the course for his next divorce.
No, seriously.
But could it apply — in a completely different way, mind you — to the Minnesota Twins trading Jorge Polanco to the Seattle Mariners in a deal for four players?
To the casual observer, it’s a hard trade to swallow. Polanco has been in the organization for a decade and a half after being signed in the vaunted 2009 class of international free agents with Max Kepler and Miguel Sano. Polanco has developed into one of the finest offensive second basemen in the game today, and plays a capable second base defensively after his time at shortstop was, shall we say, a bit uneven.
Polanco won’t turn 31 until July. He’s signed for up to two more years at exceptionally reasonable rates, with a contract that won’t stretch well into his 30s nor hamstring a budget for a team whose broadcast rights are in flux (which does not apply to the Mariners, mind you).
And let’s talk about the trade return. The Twins got back a pop-up reliever coming off easily his best (only) good season in his 30s, a broken-down starter, a lottery-ticket pitching prospect and a top-100 outfield prospect who isn’t particularly close to making the big leagues.
So I can hear you asking already: How in the HELL is this addition by subtraction?
And I get it. This is doubly true when you consider my stance that teams should always keep adding good players.
“How many good hitters do we need?” you ask.
“More,” I say in my most wise, intelligent voice.
What I mean by that is that fans oftentimes get too tied up in “who will this signing block.” That even applied last winter when the Twins signed Donovan Solano late. People wonder where he’d even play. IF he’d even play.
He wound up third on the team in plate appearances and initiated the final out in the team’s first postseason win in nearly two decades with a diving stop at first base.
So yeah, the more good players you have, the better. This isn’t exactly controversial.
And while the Twins may not have replaced Polanco with the Jorge Polanco of pitching — the team’s primary weakness with the departures of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, largely — it’s not as though Anthony DeSclafani is a total stiff when healthy. He’s actually been quite good. Think of him as trading for Tyler Mahle with the foresight to google “shoulder injury” to steal a phrase.
The Twins will pay him something like $4 million, so the idea that he’s guaranteed a starting spot and 30 trips through the rotation seems a bit rash. As stated on Locked On Twins and many other places, I’m of the ilk that the Twins still need to add another starting pitcher (someone to start between Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan).
Anyway, back to the issue at hand.
Polanco’s departure opens up second base for Edouard Julien, theoretically. There’ll be more playing time for Kyle Farmer, Willi Castro, Nick Gordon and probably a few others. Brooks Lee will likely make a cameo at some point, playing either third with Royce Lewis moving over, second or who knows, maybe a little shortstop as well.
One also mustn’t forget about Jose Miranda, who won’t be expected to perform but will likely get the chance to. He’ll no doubt be motivated by a largely lost 2023 season and recovery from a shoulder issue besides. Him hitting well and playing first or third base muddies the infield waters a bit more (and in this metaphor, we’re pigs who enjoy the mud).
So while he doesn’t answer the “who plays second base” question directly, he’s still part of the calculus.
The Twins also have Tanner Schobel, Danny De Andrade and Luke Keaschall all moving up the prospect lists with varied timetables for expected graduation — and they’re all listed among the team’s top 12 prospects on MLB Pipeline.
That’s before considering Austin Martin (bat-first super utility) and Noah Miller (glove-first super utility) who are also in that mix.
Oh, and we also should mention Yunior Severino, who is on the 40-man roster after a mammoth season in the minors last year.
And while some have chosen to focus on DeSclafani or Justin Topa as the most notable pieces in the trade — they’re big leaguers, to be fair, so it’s not the worst possible read on the situation — Gabriel Gonzalez might be the true “get” here.
He’s either on, or on the fringe of global top prospect lists that are coming out right around now and getting a lot of traction. Gonzalez struggled with his first trip in High-A, but was also exceptionally young for the level and crushed Low-A. He also gives the Twins something they didn’t already have — a high-end outfield prospect who is a right-handed hitter.
Sure, Brandon Winokur is also in that conversation, but he’s lower on the list, younger and lower in the minors. The same is doubly true for Jose Rodriguez, an exciting young outfield prospect who is even younger yet.
Don’t mistake the truth: it’s really, really hard to stomach the idea of moving a veteran like Jorge Polanco, who has undoubtedly meant a ton at every level of the way since he signed as a fresh-faced 16-year-old young man in 2009.
To restate this, he’s spent nearly half of his entire life as a Twin.
And the trade doesn’t exactly scratch the itch the casual fan — not a slam, mind you — usually wants from a trade like this (super elite prospect or a well-known name of some type), it’s not a stretch to say the Twins got better not only by moving Polanco, but reinvesting his salary in another big-league reliever (Jay Jackson) and a position player who does a few things the team could really, really use (great defense at first base, works counts, takes walks, has some pop, hits lefties).
Did the Twins get better with the Polanco trade? Time will tell. But they dealt from a position of strength to address weaknesses both in the trade itself and in free agency.
And that, my friends, is the name of the game.