Minnesota Twins Week in Review: 5.12-5.18.25
#TWiR takes a look at the Twins' stats from the last week at a glance while also combining them to the previous week
Welcome back to The Minnesota Twins Week in Review. That’s right, we’re reviving an old feature here at Access Twins.
Every Monday, we’ll take a deep dive into the week that was for your Twins. We will post on Mondays, and look back from the previous Monday to Sunday since that’s how MLB lines up its schedule.
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If you have any ideas for stats to be added, please feel free to let me know in the comments, on Facebook or on Twitter!
And now, let’s talk to it:
General Team (26-21, .553 winning percentage, 5.0 GB of Detroit, 90-72 pace)
Record last week: 5-1, .833 (t-1st) — 0-0 at home, 5-1 on the road
Current Fangraphs Record Projection: 86-76, .544 (2nd place, 6.0 GB)
Current Fangraphs Division Chances: 18.2 percent (+4.6 percent change)
Current Fangraphs Playoff Chances: 66.5 percent (+17.5 percent change)
Baseball Prospectus PECOTA Record Projection: 90-72 (2nd place, 2.0 GB)
Baseball Prospectus Division Chances: 35.5 percent (N/A percent change)
Baseball Prospectus Playoff Chances: 81.6 percent (+16.0 percent change)
Breakdown:
It’s not particularly shocking to see that a team that went 5-1 over the last week and had a 13-game winning streak in the last two weeks has drastically improved their place in the standings.
The Twins are no longer mired in fourth place — second place by a half game as of this writing — with a ways to go yet to make Detroit feel any heat in the division.
This week will be a big challenge, as they’ll get Cleveland in town for three from Monday-Wednesday followed by the Royals for three over the weekend starting Friday.
The Twins are just 7-10 (.412) in divisional play — 24th in MLB and only ahead of Chicago among AL Central clubs — so this is where the rubber meets the road.
Hitting (with rankings)
Batting Average: .274 (6th)
On-Base Percentage: .338 (8th)
Slugging Percentage: .470 (6th)
OPS: .807 (6th)
wOBA: .350 (6th)
wRC+: 131 (4th)
K%: 21.1 percent (12th)
BB%: 7.2 percent (22nd)
Runs Per Game: 5.00 (t-10th)
Batting Average (w/ RISP): .268 (11th)
Average Exit Velocity: 89.7 mph (17th)
Breakdown:
I’m highly skeptical that a 131 wRC+ or even an .807 OPS are remotely sustainable, but this is still a great step in the right direction for an offense that, at least until two weeks ago, was holding back a pitching staff that was dominant.
It’s a small enough sample size here to not get that excited about, but it goes to show that if this team can score 4-5 runs per game, they’ll be in very good shape.
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Starting Pitching (with rankings)
IP: 30.2 (t-20th)
IP/GS: 5.11 (t-19th)
Pitches/Start: 90.5 (8th)
ERA: 3.82 (17th)
FIP: 3.77 (10th)
xFIP: 4.01 (18th)
SIERA: 4.00 (14th)
K/9: 8.80 (10th)
K%: 24.0 percent (8th)
BB/9: 3.52 (22nd)
BB%: 9.6 percent (23rd)
K-BB%: 14.4 percent (13th)
WHIP: 1.11 (10th)
HR/9: 0.88 (7th)
Groundball Rate: 36.3 percent (27th)
Opponent Batting Average: .200 (4th)
Opponent On-Base Percentage: .290 (11th)
Opponent Slugging Percentage: .309 (3rd)
Opponent OPS: .599 (6th)
Average Exit Velocity Allowed: 90.1 mph (19th)
Breakdown:
I’ll admit I was surprised to see some of the peripheral numbers look not as, well, encouraging as I might have expected. Still, I think the rotation has done enough, when combined with a stellar bullpen, to keep the Twins in good shape.
I think the bigger thing to watch is innings per start, which may improve with the absence of Simeon Woods Richardson. The flip side of that, however, is that Zebby Matthews (who went 3.0 innings in his season debut) and Chris Paddack (better lately) may still bring that average down.
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Relief Pitching (with rankings)
IP: 22.1 (11th)
Innings Per Game: 3.72 (10th)
Pitches Per Game: 56.5 (19th)
ERA: 0.40 (1st)
FIP: 1.70 (1st)
xFIP: 2.80 (1st)
SIERA: 2.44 (2nd)
K/9: 10.48 (10th)
K%: 29.5 percent (5th)
BB/9: 2.01 (5th)
BB%: 5.7 percent (7th)
K-BB%: 23.9 percent (1st)
WHIP: 0.76 (2nd)
HR/9: 0.00 (t-1st)
Groundball Rate: 49.1 percent (5th)
Opponent Batting Average: .150 (3rd)
Opponent On-Base Percentage: .216 (2nd)
Opponent Slugging Percentage: .163 (1st)
Opponent OPS: .378 (1st)
Average Exit Velocity Allowed: 85.7 mph (1st)
Inherited runners scored/total: 0 of 2 (0.0 percent)
Breakdown:
in short: wow. Just….wow. When you have a capable offense and pretty good starting pitching combined with this bullpen, you won’t lose many games (and they haven’t, lately).
One thing I find interesting: the rotation has no interest in inducing grounders, while the bullpen is adept at getting them. I don’t know that it’s statistically significant, but it’s interesting to me, all the same.