Minnesota Twins Week in Review: 6.2-6.8.25
#TWiR takes a look at the Twins' stats from the last week at a glance while also combining them to the previous week
Welcome back to The Minnesota Twins Week in Review. Every Monday, we’ll take a deep dive into the week that was for your Twins. We will post on Mondays, and look back from the previous Monday to Sunday, since that’s how MLB lines up its schedule.
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And now, let’s talk to it:
General Team (35-30, .538 winning percentage, 7.0 GB of Detroit, 87-75 pace)
Record last week: 4-3, .571 (t-10th) — 1-2 at home, 3-1 on the road
Current Fangraphs Record Projection: 85-77, .525 (2nd place, 8.0 GB)
Current Fangraphs Division Chances: 12.6 percent
Current Fangraphs Playoff Chances: 59.9 percent
Baseball Prospectus PECOTA Record Projection: 88-74 (2nd place, 5.0 GB)
Baseball Prospectus Division Chances: 26.0 percent
Baseball Prospectus Playoff Chances: 78.7 percent
Breakdown:
They’re basically treading water at this point, which isn’t surprising. The offense has been a little better and the pitching — at least on the starter side — has been a little worse.
The main question is going to be if the team can stem the tide of both Pablo Lopez and Zebby Matthews being down with any sort of uptick in offense. It’s not impossible; players like Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Christian Vazquez and others have been swinging it a bit better of late.
Hitting (with rankings)
Batting Average: .266 (5th)
On-Base Percentage: .365 (2nd)
Slugging Percentage: .447 (6th)
OPS: .812 (4th)
wOBA: .359 (4th)
wRC+: 133 (3rd)
K%: 21.1 percent (9th)
BB%: 12.3 percent (1st)
Runs Per Game: 6.14 (3rd)
Batting Average (w/ RISP): .295 (8th)
Average Exit Velocity: 90.5 mph (4th)
Breakdown:
If the Twins are going to maintain the pace they’re on toward a win total in the high 80s, this is probably the template. Or at least part of it.
They’re only going to go as far as the offense allows them to.
Now there’s wiggle room in there to be sure. Can they win if the offense is merely average? Sure, it’ll just take better pitching — which is a tall task right now with Pablo and Zebby hurt.
If they hit like this, can they ride the wave (heh) and remain at or around .500 the rest of the way, which would put them in meaningful games well into September? Absolutely.
In the most recent episode of Locked On Twins, I equated it to playing slots. They don’t need “BAR-BAR-BAR” to show up to be a good team (I don’t know slot machines that well, but I think that’s a good thing to get?), but they can’t have only a good bullpen with a meh offense and a rotation that falls off a bit.
If the offense can hit anything like this down the stretch, they’re a force to be reckoned with. Never say never.
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Starting Pitching (with rankings)
IP: 36.2 (5th)
IP/GS: 5.24 (17th)
Pitches/Start: 84.4 (17th)
ERA: 5.89 (24th)
FIP: 5.55 (26th)
xFIP: 4.95 (27th)
SIERA: 4.74 (26th)
K/9: 7.36 (21st)
K%: 18.6 percent (22nd)
BB/9: 4.17 (26th)
BB%: 10.6 percent (26th)
K-BB%: 8.0 percent (26th)
WHIP: 1.36 (20th)
HR/9: 1.72 (21st)
Groundball Rate: 41.4 percent (14th)
Opponent Batting Average: .236 (16th)
Opponent On-Base Percentage: .329 (20th)
Opponent Slugging Percentage: .457 (19th)
Opponent OPS: .786 (18th)
Average Exit Velocity Allowed: 89.8 mph (20th)
Breakdown:
And yet, the stucco.
Sorry….Little Big League reference.
Here’s where the rubber meets the road…and it ain’t good. There’s no denying the A’s have a pretty good offense and so too do the Blue Jays, but this is still uncharacteristic from a Twins pitching staff that has had to beg for runs all season long.
Now, the shoe might be on the other foot.
True enough, some of this can be explained by how the offensive environment has been this season in Sacramento. Fair enough, and doubly so when considering the Twins came away from the series with 40 percent of their rotation on the IL for ….reasons *grumble*.
But now we’ll see if the Twins can turn things around. The Rangers are in town next before the team heads out to Houston, and they have what I’d consider to be good offensive personnel but the results just don’t match it (29th in average, 29th in on-base percentage, 30th in OPS and 28th in runs).
Corey Seager isn’t hitting. Neither is Marcus Semien. Adolis Garcia (72 wRC+) has also struggled. The Texas matchup should be a good one, though I’m not saying we have to immediately be concerned if those guys heat up a bit. That’s the beauty of the game — those guys should hit, but if they don’t, you get them out and get away as fast as you can because eventually you expect them to get things going.
Just…hopefully not at your expense.
The Astros are a bit tougher (20th in runs scored, 10th in average, 15th in OPS), and it’s never easy to face them on the road anyway.
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Relief Pitching (with rankings)
IP: 25.1 (10th)
Innings Per Game: 3.62 (15th)
Pitches Per Game: 59.9 (13th)
ERA: 3.91 (21st)
FIP: 2.79 (5th)
xFIP: 3.02 (5th)
SIERA: 2.92 (9th)
K/9: 10.66 (6th)
K%: 27.8 percent (7th)
BB/9: 3.20 (14th)
BB%: 8.3 percent (13th)
K-BB%: 19.4 percent (9th)
WHIP: 1.34 (20th)
HR/9: 0.71 (13th)
Groundball Rate: 47.8 percent (6th)
Opponent Batting Average: .253 (21st)
Opponent On-Base Percentage: .315 (19th)
Opponent Slugging Percentage: .394 (23rd)
Opponent OPS: .709 (22nd)
Average Exit Velocity Allowed: 89.8 mph (23rd)
Inherited runners scored/total: 1 of 1 (100.0 percent)
Breakdown:
This was a pretty uninspiring but not entirely deflating performance from one of the best bullpens in MLB. Even still, the strikeout numbers were there and the secondary numbers like FIP and xFIP still said they were one of the best in the business.
Keep on keeping on, you Red Bull-swilling fools.