Minnesota Twins Week in Review: 7.8-7.21.24
#TWiR takes a look at the Twins' stats from the last week at a glance while also combining them to the previous week
Welcome back to The Minnesota Twins Week in Review. That’s right, we’re reviving an old feature here at Access Twins.
Every Monday, we’ll take a deep dive into the week that was for your Twins. We will post on Mondays, and look back from the previous Monday to Sunday since that’s how MLB lines up its schedule.
In this case, we’re adding the three games after the All-Star break, as well.
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And now, let’s talk to it:
General Team (54-44, .551 winning percentage, 5.0 GB of Cleveland, 89-73 pace)
Record: 3-5, .375 (t-25th) — 0-2 at home, 3-3 on the road
Current Fangraphs Record Projection: 88-74, .544 (2nd place, 2.0 GB)
Current Fangraphs Division Chances: 33.0 percent (+0.0 percent change)
Current Fangraphs Playoff Chances: 75.5 percent (-10.3 percent change)
Baseball Prospectus PECOTA Record Projection: 89-73 (2nd place, 2.0 GB)
Baseball Prospectus Division Chances: 31.0 percent (+5.2 percent change)
Baseball Prospectus Playoff Chances: 78.2 percent (-8.0 percent change)
Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Playoff Chances (to reach Divisional Series): 51.2 percent (+2.3 percent change)
Breakdown:
So…what is happening here, exactly? In all honesty, it seems to me like it’s a lot of noise. It was not a particularly fun stretch of eight games for the Twins, but they still hold strong chances of making the postseason — and beyond that, the divisional gap projections seem to have narrowed considerably.
But it’s worth noting that the Twins still have a difficult three-game stretch with the Phillies while the Guardians open a set with the Tigers starting Monday.
How will the Twins fare against the team most consider to be the best in all of MLB? On the plus side, they are playing at home.
Hitting (with rankings)
Batting Average: .226 (25th)
On-Base Percentage: .299 (22nd)
Slugging Percentage: .392 (20th)
OPS: .691 (21st)
wOBA: .303 (22nd)
wRC+: 98 (21st)
K%: 20.1 percent (7th)
BB%: 7.9 percent (15th)
Runs Per Game: 3.75 (23rd)
Batting Average (w/ RISP): .167 (27th)
Average Exit Velocity: 87.1 mph (25th)
Breakdown:
This is reflective of a team that limped into the All-Star break and hasn’t come out strong either. Though to be fair, the Twins are hardly close to full strength on offense — though that should hopefully change in the days and weeks to come.
This is one of those extremely frustrating stretches that stick in fans’ collective craws because — especially because — of the team’s struggles with runners in scoring position. Stranding the bases full after loading them with zero outs looms large in fans’ psyches — and again, who can blame them?
It’s a small enough sample size here to not get that upset about — and the strikeout rate is still to be commended — but the Twins are going to need to hit a little better than this, even with their studs injured, to stay afloat in the Central even with the Guardians scuffling a bit.
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Starting Pitching (with rankings)
IP: 43.2 (25th)
IP/GS: 5.46 (13th)
Pitches/Start: 90.4 (9th)
ERA: 4.12 (15th)
FIP: 2.99 (2nd)
xFIP: 3.30 (2nd)
SIERA: 3.46 (4th)
K/9: 9.48 (4th)
K%: 25.7 percent (3rd)
BB/9: 2.06 (8th)
BB%: 5.6 percent (8th)
K-BB%: 20.1 percent (3rd)
WHIP: 1.15 (10th)
HR/9: 0.82 (5th)
Groundball Rate: 39.5 percent (22nd)
Opponent Batting Average: .242 (11th)
Opponent On-Base Percentage: .287 (7th)
Opponent Slugging Percentage: .412 (14th)
Opponent OPS: .699 (12th)
Average Exit Velocity Allowed: 87.4 mph (10th)
Breakdown:
This gets especially frustrating because the Twins have all the components of a starting staff that should have fared far better than they did over this span. The solid FIP/xFIP/SIERA numbers all look great, but when paired with results off that pace and an offense struggling, the result is a 3-5 stretch in a moment when the team ahead of them in the standings is vulnerable.
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The part I found most encouraging was keeping the ball in the ballpark, though playing in San Francisco likely aided that considerably.
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Relief Pitching (with rankings)
IP: 30.1 (t-21st)
Innings Per Game: 3.79 (11th)
Pitches Per Game: 56.9 (16th)
ERA: 3.86 (17th)
FIP: 3.68 (14th)
xFIP: 4.01 (21st)
SIERA: 3.54 (16th)
K/9: 8.31 (10th)
K%: 23.0 percent (19th)
BB/9: 2.67 (7th)
BB%: 7.4 percent (7th)
K-BB%: 15.6 percent 16th)
WHIP: 1.02 (3rd)
HR/9: 0.89 (9th)
Groundball Rate: 51.2 percent (5th)
Opponent Batting Average: .204 (6th)
Opponent On-Base Percentage: .275 (4th)
Opponent Slugging Percentage: .370 (13th)
Opponent OPS: .645 (8th)
Average Exit Velocity Allowed: 85.4 mph (1st)
Inherited runners scored/total: 7 of 13 (53.8 percent)
Breakdown:
The lack of strikeouts isn’t great, but the Twins mitigated it nicely with weak contact and grounders — so it’s not as bad as it might otherwise seem.
But again, with this kind of relief pitching, it’s a shame the Twins lost more games than they won over this span.