Minnesota Twins Week in Review: 8.5-8.11.24
#TWiR takes a look at the Twins' stats from the last week at a glance while also combining them to the previous week
Welcome back to The Minnesota Twins Week in Review. That’s right, we’re reviving an old feature here at Access Twins.
Every Monday, we’ll take a deep dive into the week that was for your Twins. We will post on Mondays, and look back from the previous Monday to Sunday since that’s how MLB lines up its schedule.
If you have any ideas for stats to be added, please feel free to let me know in the comments, on Facebook or on Twitter!
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And now, let’s talk to it:
General Team (65-52, .556 winning percentage, 3.5 GB of Cleveland, 90-72 pace)
Record: 3-4, .429 (t-18th) — 2-2 at home, 1-2 on the road
Current Fangraphs Record Projection: 89-73, .548 (2nd place, 2.0 GB)
Current Fangraphs Division Chances: 26.0 percent (-7.0 percent change)
Current Fangraphs Playoff Chances: 81.9 percent (+6.4 percent change)
Baseball Prospectus PECOTA Record Projection: 89-73 (2nd place, 3.0 GB)
Baseball Prospectus Division Chances: 26.1 percent (-6.9 percent change)
Baseball Prospectus Playoff Chances: 85.7 percent (+7.5 percent change)
Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Playoff Chances (to reach Divisional Series): 47.7 percent (-3.5 percent change)
Breakdown:
This is where dropping the last two games of the series really hurts. While the Twins still have a good chance to make the playoffs, their divisional odds would be markedly higher if they could have nabbed one of the final two games to narrow the deficit further. (Not exactly world-beating math, there.)
As things stand, the Twins are the second-place team with the second-highest odds of winning the division, trailing only the Orioles who are 29.4 percent to usurp the Yankees and are also projected to finish roughly three games behind New York (rounding makes things slightly fuzzy here).
Hitting (with rankings)
Batting Average: .230 (24th)
On-Base Percentage: .270 (28th)
Slugging Percentage: .401 (18th)
OPS: .671 (26th)
wOBA: .290 (26th)
wRC+: 87 (25th)
K%: 21.5 percent (15th)
BB%: 4.6 percent (29th)
Runs Per Game: 3.14 (29th)
Batting Average (w/ RISP): .146 (29th)
Average Exit Velocity: 89.1 mph (10th)
Breakdown:
Really the only positive here is that the Twins hit the ball hard, but it pretty much is reflected nowhere but in the slugging percentage. Still, slugging .401 only means a few more of the few hits the Twins cobbled together went for extra bases.
Hitting the ball hard with nothing to show for it? Would it shock you that the Twins played the Guardians over this span?
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Starting Pitching (with rankings)
IP: 33.0 (t-15th)
IP/GS: 4.71 (t-20th)
Pitches/Start: 79.0 (25th)
ERA: 3.00 (t-5th)
FIP: 4.18 (16th)
xFIP: 3.65 (7th)
SIERA: 3.52 (6th)
K/9: 9.82 (6th)
K%: 26.5 percent (7th)
BB/9: 2.18 (7th)
BB%: 5.9 percent (7th)
K-BB%: 20.6 percent (6th)
WHIP: 1.06 (6th)
HR/9: 1.64 (22nd)
Groundball Rate: 37.4 percent (22nd)
Opponent Batting Average: .213 (7th)
Opponent On-Base Percentage: .265 (4th)
Opponent Slugging Percentage: .362 (7th)
Opponent OPS: .627 (6th)
Average Exit Velocity Allowed: 86.6 mph (5th)
Breakdown:
One thing to keep an eye on here is the innings and pitches per start. Mostly, I mean how it tracks when the Twins are being forced to rely upon younger starters in Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa (who was removed fairly early on Sunday) and Zebby Matthews, who is making his MLB debut on Tuesday.
There’ll be a natural tendency to wonder why the innings count won’t climb up with how good all of the secondary numbers are, but it’s a chicken and egg situation. Festa and the other youngsters are going to be managed in a way that’ll ideally make their numbers look like this — but the effect may be seen on the innings total and declining returns from the bullpen.
It’ll be a situation to monitor, at the least.
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Relief Pitching (with rankings)
IP: 28.0 (t-6th)
Innings Per Game: 4.00 (t-12th)
Pitches Per Game: 65.4 (12th)
ERA: 5.14 (18th)
FIP: 3.89 (15th)
xFIP: 4.07 (18th)
SIERA: 3.54 (16th)
K/9: 8.36 (20th)
K%: 22.2 percent (16th)
BB/9: 3.54 (t-19th)
BB%: 9.4 percent (22nd)
K-BB%: 12.8 percent (20th)
WHIP: 1.18 (9th)
HR/9: 0.96 (t-12th)
Groundball Rate: 49.4 percent (5th)
Opponent Batting Average: .210 (5th)
Opponent On-Base Percentage: .282 (7th)
Opponent Slugging Percentage: .352 (11th)
Opponent OPS: .634 (7th)
Average Exit Velocity Allowed: 87.5 mph (15th)
Inherited runners scored/total: 2 of 10 (20.0 percent)
Breakdown:
I am endlessly fascinated by how the starters induce no grounders but the bullpen does the exact opposite.
As concerning as this looks, the secondary numbers are much more encouraging and it’s fair to say there are more than a few guys who won’t be in the bullpen from last week moving forward (as in Randy Dobnak already being sent out, for one).
How the bullpen shapes up moving forward — will Louie Varland or Chris Paddack shift over, etc — will be something to watch, but there’s one thing we know for sure about baseball:
Things will get worse or they will get better, but they will never stay exactly the same.