MLB Trade Rumors Releases Arbitration Salary Projections

Twelve Twins are eligible for arbitration this offseason; how many will be tendered?

One of my favorite days of the offseason — and this is a testament to what kind of nerd I am — is when MLB Trade Rumors releases Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries.

Perhaps I am biased, as Swartz is a former colleague not only at Fangraphs but before that, Baseball Prospectus. But he does a terrific job each and every year for the last dozen years based on a proprietary algorithm that, near as I can tell, is the most accurate forward-facing one I’ve ever seen.

This list does not include any potential Super-Two players, as those still have not been determined as yet. That cutoff will come sometime after the season.

But for now, let’s take a look and see what Twins are eligible for arbitration, and if we think they’ll be back with the club in 2023.

Arbitration estimated via MLB Trade Rumors, free agency info via Baseball-Reference:

Gio Urshela (5.127): $9.2MM (free agent after 2023)

On multiple occasions and platforms, I called Urshela the team’s “it” guy, and by that, I meant whenever something good happened, he was usually near the middle of it.

But how much of an “it” guy can a team have if the squad completely withered down the stretch?

I think that’s oversimplifying things a bit. Urshela was more than just a decent hitter for the Twins (119 wRC+) and while the defensive metrics don’t love him, he did more than a decent job at the hot corner when called upon.

The question “will he be tendered” should be a no-brainer; the “will he be a Twin in 2023” one is probably a bit more complicated.

Urshela isn’t the future for the Twins at third base. It’s not fair to him, but based on the fact that he’s eligible for free agency next winter, is going to get a handsome raise this offseason and is in an organization rife with infielders, he most likely has one foot out the door.

I suspect the Twins look to trade him this offseason. Not because he’s a bad player and certainly not because it would be an easy move to make, but because they can fill that role fairly easily within — Jose Miranda comes to mind — while reallocating those dollars to shortstop, the rotation or both.

If he can bring back a pretty good pitcher with a couple years of control — I’m just spitballing, but someone like Austin Gomber, Dakota Hudson or Adrian Houser — that might be what the Twins look to do.

Emilio Pagan (5.091): $3.7MM (free agent after 2023)

Pagan has been good exactly once in his career — 1.5 fWAR with the Rays in 2019 — unless you count his rookie season in 2017 (0.8 fWAR). He still throws the ever-loving sh*t out of the ball, and appeared to develop some sort of new breaking pitch as the season went on.

The last high-leverage spot the Twins put Pagan in came on Aug. 28 — a win over the Giants in which he worked parts of the fourth and fifth innings. From then on, Pagan had a 2.08 ERA, .547 OPS against and 18-6 K/BB ratio in 13.0 innings. Over his last 13 appearances, he had a 2.16 ERA, .568 OPS against and 21-8 K/BB ratio in 16.2 innings with just one home run allowed.

I don’t know if the Twins can quit Pagan; after all, they couldn’t all season long, right? What I do know is fans are ready to, and will be right back at it when he goes back to the Rays and posts a 2.00 ERA wih 100 strikeouts in 75 innings next season.

Tyler Mahle (5.018): $7.2MM (free agent after 2023)

Mahle is an easy yes, not only at this figure but also based on what was traded to get him to Minnesota. What really stinks here is that the Twins most likely would have preferred to do with him what the Mariners did with Luis Castillo — get him signed long-term.

Now, the chance to do that is in peril. It’s tough to come to a common ground on the value of a pitcher with a bum shoulder. Will he need surgery? Right now, it seems like the answer is no. But one more bark from his right arm is a season down the drain. Not only his last season of club control, but possibly the rest of his career. Shoulder injuries suck, man.

Do you give a guy with a bum shoulder four years and $64 million? Does he take it? I don’t know the correct answer here. But I do know a lot of Twins fans think Mahle isn’t very good based on four starts with the club — and that really sucks.

Caleb Thielbar (4.131): $2.4MM (free agent after 2024)

In general, Thielbar had a very good year, but he really ramped it up after a brutal start. From May 1 on, Thielbar had a 2.38 ERA in 53.0 innings pitched with a .585 OPS against and 72 strikeouts (12.2 K/9). He’s one of the more unheralded relievers in the AL today, and I see no reason why the Twins would non-tender him this offseason.

Jorge Lopez (4.102): $3.7MM (free agent after 2024)

Lopez couldn’t maintain the strong start he had to his season with the Orioles — which even led to an All-Star nod — but his stuff remained intact and there’s ample reason to believe he can bounce back next season as the closer. Easy yes here.

Danny Coulombe (4.008): $800K (free agent after 2024)

Coulombe will be non-tendered for the second straight year, but could return as a non-roster invitee (as he did in 2022, also). Hip issues limited the lefty to 12.1 respectable innings this season (1.46 ERA, but 1-1 K/BB ratio).

Chris Paddack (4.000): $2.4MM (free agent after 2024)

They’ll tender him, but he’ll spend most of the season on the 60-day injured list as he works back from Tommy John surgery — much to the delight of fans still lamenting the Taylor Rogers trade.

Jake Cave (3.137): $1.2MM (free agent after 2024)

He’ll be non-tendered. Maybe he can land somewhere as a second-division starter, but he’s most likely going to be a guy fighting to hang around as a fourth outfielder who’ll go as far as his bat takes him. I don’t think it’ll be in Minnesota, though.

Luis Arraez (3.121): $5MM (free agent after 2025)

Arraez has three more years of club control left, but I sort of wonder if they won’t try to sign him to an extension to get some cost certainty. Maybe they can do something like three years, $21 million ($5m-$7m-$9m) with a 2026 option for, say, $11 or 12 million.

Either way, he’ll be a Twin next season unless someone comes calling with a really massive offer in the trade market. As a good hitter without a position, Arraez probably won’t ever have more value in a trade than he does now.

Cody Stashak (3.064): $800K (free agent after 2025)

Shoulders are tricky. Stashak does many things this regime likes, like inducing weak fly balls, walking no one and using a low-90s fastball with lots of carry up in the strike zone. But how close is he to healthy? Can he help the team next season? If not, I could see him being non-tendered and returning on a minor-league deal to free up the 40-man space.

Jorge Alcala (3.014): $800K (free agent after 2025)

Was any injured Twin missed more than Alcala this season? Well, yeah. But keep this in mind — he’d have been more insurance against Pagan’s struggles, which could/would have been invaluable in those midseason games against the Guardians when everything turned into dust.

Alcala is an excellent middle reliever when he’s healthy, and if he can neutralize his homer problem, he’s probably a dominant late-inning setup man. He’s not Jhoan Duran or anything, but he could be a real asset next to Lopez out there for sure.

Kyle Garlick (2.163): $1.1MM (free agent after 2026)

Garlick’s production slid as the season went on, but he still hit a solid .243/.305/.500 against southpaws and is a career .252/.301/.538 hitter against them. Can he stay healthy? A better question might be does a team in the Twins’ position really need to focus a roster spot on a lefty masher? You can make the case that they do with as lefty-heavy as their outfield is. But you can also make the case that you can do it either more cheaply or more capably if you look elsewhere.

It’s not unreasonable to pay a guy like Garlick $1.1 million at all, but it’ll be worth monitoring which outfielders return from this past season — as the Twins used a lot of them (13 players appeared in at least one game in the outfield).