Power Ranking the Fits in Free Agency: Catchers
The Twins could use another backstop, but a lot will depend on what role they expect the player to fill
Dan Hayes had an article on The Athletic on Monday morning stating that adding a catcher will be high on the list of needs for the Minnesota Twins this offseason.
A lot of chatter and ink will be used on whether the Twins will retain Carlos Correa or dip into a stellar shortstop market. Fans are always (justifiably) bemoaning the team’s need to add more starting pitching. Still, it’s impossible to deny that adding a second catcher as a tag-team partner for Ryan Jeffers is a pretty big deal.
Jeffers hit .208/.285/.363 last season, which at first blush does not seem great. However, that comes out to an 87 wRC+, which is almost exactly league average catcher production (89 was the league average).
The bigger issue was that Jeffers played just 67 games. Twins catchers had the 17th-best OPS last season (.629), but that comes out to Jeffers at .648 and the rest of the team’s catchers slashing a meager .193/.269/.341 (.610 OPS) in 405 plate appearances.
Can Jeffers be counted on to catch more than 100 games? More importantly — do the Twins even want that to be the case? The Houston Astros just won a World Series with a primary catcher who played 113 games and hit .186/.248/.352. Can Jeffers command a pitching staff like Martin Maldonado? I don’t know the answer to that, but it’s far more likely a “no” than a “yes.”
This regime drafted Jeffers. They pretty clearly value his defense. Does his 2020 cameo (.791 OPS) suggest there’s more than meets the eye offensively? It’s certainly possible, as he’s entering just his age-26 season.
So it will be worth monitoring what kind of catcher the Twins will pair him with. Will it be a platoon (which is basically any catcher on the free-agent market who did not play for the Cubs last season), or will the Twins make a splash by signing Willson Contreras (or, perhaps, trading for a Sean Murphy, Alejandro Kirk or Danny Jansen)?
Let’s take a look at the current state of the free-agent market, and try to get a feel for how those players would fit if the Twins don’t make a trade to fill their gaping hole on the 40-man roster.
Let’s talk to it:
Tucker Barnhart (.221/.287/.267 in 308 PA for the Tigers, 0.1 bWAR/minus-0.2 fWAR)
If this seems bleak, it’s because catcher is a pretty shallow position across the entire league, let alone the precious few players of any value who are allowed to hit free agency.
Barnhart is a lefty-swinging catcher who typically grades out pretty well defensively. His best seasons offensively are pretty average for a catcher, but he can do a little damage against righties when he’s going well. With that said, he hit just .221/.287/.267 for the Tigers last season — his first away from the bandbox that Cincinnati plays in.
He’ll be cheap, offers something offensively that Jeffers doesn’t, is fairly good defensively and wouldn’t be miscast as a second catcher if the incumbent takes off offensively as many in the organization hope. For that reason, he’s a perfectly reasonable target for the Twins (that would come with the requisite grumbling from fans that he’s not, let’s say, Willson Contreras).
He made $7.5 million last season with the Tigers, but I’d suspect something in the $5 million range would get it done on a one-year deal for Barnhart, who is entering his age-32 season.
Mike Zunino (.148/.195/.304 in 123 PA for the Rays, minus-0.8 bWAR/0.0 fWAR)
Can he throw? That will be the biggest question after he underwent season-ending thoracic outlet surgery in late July. That surgery can be the death knell for pitchers — hello Phil Hughes — but it’s unclear how it would affect a catcher. That’s especially true of Zunino, who is widely heralded for his defense and his propensity to hit home runs — and pretty much nothing else.
He’s a career .200/.271/.410 hitter (88 wRC+) who strikes out 34.7 percent of the time, so that will drive the casuals crazy even if he does a terrific job behind the plate. He’s surprisingly never won a Gold Glove, but Fangraphs has him with 128.6 defensive runs over his career (and minus-46.9 offensive runs).
Signing Zunino is perfectly reasonable if the Twins think A. Kyle Farmer can catch every now and then (almost certainly no) or B. they can sign a veteran catcher to a minor-league deal as insurance (someone better than Sandy Leon, who is also a free agent).
Zunino made $7 million last season and I suspect he’ll sign for right around that again — or maybe a little less.
Christian Vazquez (.274/.315/.399 in 426 PA for the Red Sox and Astros, 2.1 bWAR/1.6 fWAR)
Vazquez does everything well behind the plate and over the last three seasons has hit a more than respectable (for a catcher) .270/.319/.422. His average over that span is 108 games played, 12 home runs, 48 RBI and that comes with a 93 OPS+, as well (pretty good, again, for a catcher). As a right-handed hitter, he might be a bit of redundancy, however. Then again, everything he does to impact a game behind the plate would make him a solid signing for the Twins. He should be able to score a two-year deal around $16 million in my estimation.
Omar Narvaez (.206/.292/.305 in 296 PA for the Brewers, 0.2 bWAR/1.1 fWAR)
Narvaez is coming off a poor offensive season, but is exactly league average over his career (.258/.343/.386 for a 100 OPS+) — and again, that gets a boost due to the paucity of good hitting catchers.
I’ve listed Narvaez on every Twins blueprint I have made so far, so why isn’t he the No. 1 fit? Well, more on that in a second.
But Narvaez is a left-handed hitter who is terrific defensively, and since he’s coming off a down season, I suspect he’ll probably have to settle for a one-year deal. With that said, defensive-minded teams will still be willing to pay a premium to secure his services for 2023. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a fairly sizable raise from the $5 million he made last season — even coming off a rough year at the dish.
Willson Contreras (.243/349/.466 in 487 PA for the Cubs, 3.9 bWAR/3.3 fWAR)
I mean obviously, WillCo is the best fit for everyone at catcher. Is he likely, or even reasonable to expect the Twins to sign? I don’t know for sure.
Contreras isn’t regarded all that highly behind the plate, but he isn’t Yankees-era Gary Sanchez back there, either. He’s never had a wRC+ below 100, and his worst year (101) was five seasons ago. Catchers like Contreras don’t hit free agency very often, and his contract will reflect that.
I would expect him to get at least four years at $16-18 million per, with a team possibly pushing it to five to lock him down. Is $100 million out of the question? It might be, but matching Yasmani Grandal’s four years and $73 million from the White Sox doesn’t seem like a reach at all (nor should it be).
The best of the rest (basically all of the rest):
Jorge Alfaro - He’s regarded as a good defender and is coming off a 90 wRC+ with the Padres, who non-tendered him rather than paying an estimated $3.6 million (per MLB Trade Rumors). Unless there’s something I’m not seeing in the stats, this might prove to be a shortsighted decision by the Padres. He’s probably No. 6 on this list.
Jason Castro - He’s 35, barely played last year and when he did, it wasn’t pretty. With that said, if he’s willing to sign a minor-league deal and hang out in St. Paul, this would be a very nice get for the Twins as insurance if they, for instance, sign someone like Zunino.
Roberto Perez - He’s never really hit at all outside of 2019 — remember how weird that offensive season was? — but he’s played more than one might expect with Cleveland over the years due to his defensive acumen. He’s Zunino lite.
Dom Nunez - I don’t really see it but he’s young (28 in January) and was a decent-hitting catcher in the minors. This would be the Tomas Telis/Juan Graterol path.
Luke Maile - He also has never hit but keeps getting work because he’s a pretty solid defender. He has had some really good seasons throwing out opposing runners, too (above 30 percent on multiple occasions).
Curt Casali - He’s bounced around a bunch but has the Tampa Bay connection (2014-17) with Rocco Baldelli and is actually a fairly decent hitter (92 career wRC+). He’s especially adept at taking walks (10.7 percent in his career, 13.6 percent last year) but hits from the right side. Could be a sneaky pickup.
Tyler Heineman - Decent framing numbers (plus-3 runs according to Statcast), and Baseball Prospectus’ catching stats love him. He was a very good hitter in the minors, but is 31 and hasn’t shown anything offensively.
Gary Sanchez - I don’t really see the Twins running it back here but he didn’t embarrass himself outside of almost getting decapitated by Gilberto Celestino (and that wasn’t necessarily all his fault either).
Kevin Plawecki - He didn’t hit at all last year (61 wRC+) but has a couple of years where he did damage as a part-time player. He’ll be 32 in February and the days of him being a hotshot prospect are well in the rear-view mirror, but he’d be a reasonable depth signing.
Luis Torrens - He can do a pretty reasonable Henry Blanco impression at the plate and is heading into his age-27 season, so maybe there’s something here. Baseball Prospectus is down on his defense (minus-4.7 framing runs, as is Statcast (minus-3 framing runs), and he’s never graded out above a zero on Statcast either (exactly zero on only 90 pitches in 2019). His arm also doesn’t flash particularly well, so he’d be a project.
Austin Hedges - Defense-first, second and third but he’s excellent behind the plate and that could go a long way. He can not hit, however.
Robinson Chirinos - On his last legs (heading into age-39 season, poor defensive statistics) and should not be a priority, but has Texas Rangers/Levine angle working in his favor.