Power Ranking the Fits in Free Agency: Right-Handed Hitters

The Twins slashed .240/.310/.391 against southpaws last season, making right-handed hitting a likely target in free agency

Nov 29, 2022

There's no denying that Jose Abreu would have made for a good fit for the Minnesota Twins, but he signed a three-year deal with the Houston Astros which was announced on Monday.

The deal, which was for $58.5 million, is probably a bit rich for many teams' blood — not just the Twins. The deal will take Abreu through his age-38 season, and while he's still going strong as a hitter it'll be worth watching if he can age more like Nelson Cruz than, well, any other mortal man.

The Twins also probably aren't looking for a medium- to long-term fit at first base. That's a lot of money to tie up in a spot the Twins capably filled with Luis Arraez, Jose Miranda and friends last year, and that's a mix that could also easily see Alex Kirilloff enter the fray in 2023 as well.

It would better serve the Twins to push their chips in on a starting pitcher, shortstop or quite frankly, both.

But a need — albeit a secondary one — is adding some right-handed help on offense. The Twins ranked 17th in wRC+ against southpaws last season, and that's a line that right now has to account for subtracting Carlos Correa.

The Twins have enough holes around the diamond where they can add a right-handed hitter just about anywhere. So in that vein, we'll assess the landscape on the whole for right-handed hitters as opposed to going position-by-position.

Let’s take a look at the current state of the free-agent market, and try to get a feel for how those players would fit if the Twins don’t make a trade to fill their gaping hole on the 40-man roster.

Let’s talk to it (and assume that catchers and shortstops need not apply as they'll both have individual posts by the end of this exercise):

Andrew McCutchen (.237/.316/.384 in 580 PA for the Brewers, 1.1 bWAR/0.3 fWAR)

This would be a "Torii Hunter in 2015" kind of signing for the Twins. That is as much about vibes as it is on-field performance.

I mean look at this guy.

McCutchen is a corner outfield/DH-guy only at this point, but I think in a smaller sample size could show he still has more juice than what he showed last year with the Brewers. For instance, between June and July — a not insignificant 214 plate appearance sampling — McCutchen hit .291/.369/.460.

That's not to say he would be anything close to that in a full season in a part-time role, but that he isn't simply cooked, it appears.

He also hit a respectable .221/.303/.435 against southpaws — a 105 split OPS+ according to Baseball Reference. I'm guessing he'll land a one-year deal in the $6-8 million range.

J.D. Martinez (.274/.341/.448 in 596 PA for the Red Sox, 1.1 bWAR/1.0 fWAR)

Martinez would be like a dollar-store Nelson Cruz-type addition for the Twins. He's no longer still at his best heading into his age-35 season, but he's good for 600 plate appearances per season and over his last two years has hit .280/.345/.484 with per-162-game averages of 22 home runs, 91 RBI and 48 doubles.

He's only this low on the list because he'd likely eat up a fair chunk of the team's available spending room. I think he'll probably get a one-year deal for something like $12-14 million — and quite likely be worth it.

Trey Mancini (.239/.319/.391 in 587 PA for the Orioles and Astros, 1.4 bWAR/0.9 fWAR)

Mancini isn't the hitter Martinez is, but he owns fielding gloves which gives him a little added boost. His career line is a splendid .265/.330/.457 (113 OPS+), which gives me Michael Cuddyer vibes. He did not hit lefties in 2022 (.650 OPS), but for his career has no discernible splits (.786 vs. RHP/.790 vs. LHP).

He's played first base, left field and right field and isn't regarded as a particularly good defender, though that can be papered over with time at DH and late-inning defensive replacements. Statcast, for what it's worth, suggests he had a pretty decent year at first base this season (plus-3 runs).

If Mancini gets a one-year deal, I'd guess it's for $8-10 million, or right around what his declined option was with the Astros ($10 million).

Luke Voit (.226/.308/.402 in 568 PA for the Padres and Nationals, 0.1 bWAR/0.2 fWAR)

Voit is a righty masher but he only plays first base. So why is he this high on the list? Well, because he's coming off a down season and so his cost should reflect that — and who loves a deal like that more than the Twins?

Voit's OPS of .710 seems like no great shakes overall, but given the depressed offensive environment in 2022, that was still good for a 106 OPS+. He's a better hitter over his career than Mancini (124 OPS+) with less positional versatility, but again he'll likely be cheaper.

The vibes check out here, as well.

Voit's four-year run with the Yankees from 2018-21 was a sight to behold — .271/.363/.520 with 68 home runs in 281 games. If he can come anywhere close to that, or even his career numbers, on a one-year deal worth, say, $6-7 million, that's a great deal.

Voit was expected to earn $8.2 million in arbitration according to MLB Trade Rumors.

Mitch Haniger (.246/.308/.429 in 247 PA for the Mariners, 1.3 bWAR/minus-0.8 fWAR)

To me, Haniger is the best fit of the bunch because he plays the outfield, where the Twins are hopelessly left-handed and, especially if they trade Max Kepler, unproven and/or injury-prone.

Haniger helps some of that, but if you were to look up injury-prone in the dictionary there's a good chance you'd find his picture there.

But with that said, if Haniger had hit free agency after either of his fully healthy big-league seasons — 157 games played in both 2018 and 2021 — he'd be looking at a multi-year deal worth big-time money rather than a one-year deal for, say, $10-12 million.

Haniger's first healthy season resulted in him slashing .285/.366/.493 (139 OPS+) and his second was a .253/.318/.485 season (122 OPS+). His career numbers are right in line with Voit's (123 OPS+) and he offers the ability to play the outfield — though he was exclusively in right last season.

He's a career .277/.353/.500 hitter against southpaws, but he's more than respectable against righties (a Mancini-esque .255/.328/.467).

He'd be a terrific fit, hence his position on the list, but the competition for his services should be strong.

The best of the rest:

Wil Myers - The more I think about it, the more I believe he should probably be in the top five. Nevertheless, he plays all over the place — mostly first base and right field — and hit .264/.320/.495 against southpaws last season. He's even dabbled at third base a bit in the past. He also hit much, much better away from Petco Park (.831/.583 OPS split), so this might be a very, very sneaky opportunity here.
Adam Duvall - He can smoke lefties when he's at his best, but is he really any better than Kyle Garlick? Since 2019, he's slashed .229/.290/.497 against them with 19 home runs in 314 plate appearances. I don't really see the appeal.
Aledmys Diaz - He's hit .266/.325/.453 against lefties the last two seasons and appeared in at least 10 games last year at second and third base, shortstop and left field. He's a sleeper candidate.
Justin Turner - He's heading into his age-38 season and can still play, but I don't really think I see the Twins adding a third baseman unless it's short-term and they want Miranda to hang out at first base a little longer. Hmm, maybe that isn't a bad idea.
Evan Longoria - Pretty much everything said about Turner applies here but he's a year younger.
Robbie Grossman - He's technically a switch-hitter but he gets on base and is coming off a down season. He's 33, so it's possible he's nearing the end but the price should reflect that.
Nelson Cruz - Hell, why not?
Garrett Hampson - He's slashed .279/.353/.470 against lefties the last two seasons and is desperately in need of a change of scenery, like most hitters from Coors. Will be cheap and has eternally been a fantasy baseball sleeper. Could still find it at 28.
Jake Marisnick - He's not much of a hitter but he plays solid outfield defense.
Kevin Pillar - See Marisnick but older.
Lorenzo Cain - He'd be a dollar-store McCutchen in this scenario.
Tommy Pham - He's basically righty-only Robbie Grossman. Hasn't had a good offensive season since 2019.
Chad Pinder - He can play a few different positions — like most Oakland A's — and has it made in the shade if he only faces lefties (.778 OPS over his career).
Yuli Gurriel - He's 38 and probably doesn't have much left. He was damn good in 2021 though (.319/.383/.462).
Jesus Aguilar - At his best he ropes lefties. He's a first-base-only guy who isn't particularly young (32). He's a fallback.
Miguel Sano - I really doubt it but the price will be right.
Hanser Alberto - He absolutely destroyed lefties in 2019-20 with the Orioles (.942 OPS) before they non-tendered him. He offers nothing against righties though, but plays everywhere. He refuses to walk (three in 159 plate appearances in 2022).
Josh Harrison - He's still a decent hitter (94 OPS+) after appearing to be done a few years ago in Detroit. He plays everywhere, and would be a good 26th man for most clubs.
Willi Castro - There was a time in his career where he really hit lefties but it was a very, very small sample size. He's only 25, plays everywhere and could probably be had on a minor-league deal. I wouldn't hate it.