Ranking the Twins' Remaining Free-Agent Hitter Options
What remaining hitters best fit what the Twins are trying to do? Dave has a look into this question
While several options still exist in free agency to help the Twins lineup for 2024, they’re all imperfect. The hitters could be significantly too expensive, or just kind of too expensive. They could be too old by a lot, or by just enough to make you worry. They might play the wrong position. They might not play an ideal position. Or positions. They could be limited by a lack of defensive ability, in part or entirely. Their batting splits against left-handed pitching might be just what the Twins need — even if their results against righties aren’t helpful.
With all of that, let’s take a look at the best options available. Here are the questions we want answered: Can they mash? Can they mash lefties? Can they play defense in left or right field? Can they play defense in center field once in a while? Can they play in center for 50 or 100 games if necessary? And, not least of all, can the Twins afford them?
Jorge Soler
It would take a deeper financial commitment from ownership than perhaps it considers ideal, but slugger Jorge Soler could give the Twins the kind of offensive jolt that the acquisition of Nelson Cruz did in 2019.
Soler is the best plausible and reasonable option remaining among free agents as MLB and the Twins count down to the start of spring training next week. Soler, who soon turns 32 years old, owns a career slash line of .243/.330/.467, and averages 32 home runs and 30 doubles for every 162 games played. He also mashes against left-handed pitching, slugging .688 against them with the Marlins in 2023, when he made the All-Star team for the first time.
Overall he hit .250/.341/.512 with 36 homers in 137 games for the Fish, an offensive output that ranked him 23rd overall by wRC+ at Fangraphs. Soler topping 40 home runs with Target Field as a home base in 2024, instead of the oppressive park in Miami, is not out of the question. Back in '19, the Twins added Cruz, who was 38 at the time, and he finished with 41 homers to help them win 101 games. Cruz was one of the five or 10 best hitters in the league in '19, and to expect that from Soler would be a bit much. But he's an excellent hitter just the same.
Soler would cost a premium, though, and even with free agency being dragged out toward spring training, it's unlikely the Twins could steal him for one season. When the offseason began, MLB Trade Rumors predicted Soler would get a three-year deal for $45 million. It would seem that two years for $30 million might get it done.
Soler has a right fielder's arm but overall isn't known for his defense. Ideally, Matt Wallner and Max Kepler would hold down the corners for most of the season. The Twins absolutely would never even consider him for center field, which is why they might not be considering him seriously at all.
The Twins do have a lot of minor-league depth among their outfield prospects, some of which might be ready this season. It's also unlikely they'd produce at the plate like Soler out of the box. Also: The Carlos Santana signing doesn't have to take up all of the Twins' plate appearances for DH (no matter if it's Santana or Alex Kirilloff doing the DHing).
Adam Duvall
Despite missing the start of the season because of a fractured left wrist, Duvall finished 2023 with one of his best individual outputs at the plate, going by the percentages and adjusting for the league. He hit .247/.303/.531 with 21 homers and 24 doubles in 92 games. Duvall was only OK against left-handed pitching in '23, putting up a .244/.280/.477 with three homers in 93 plate appearances. That's about league average. In '22, Duvall was 30 percent better than league average against lefties and 24 percent worse than the league against righties — but this was an extreme for his career.
Duvall also turned 35 in September and started to show his age in a few places, notably on defense, where a lot of his value has derived. He ranked 26th among center fielders with -5 total runs saved at Fielding Bible, a big drop from his 2022 results. The Twins wouldn't need him to cover center field every day if Byron Buxton stays healthy, but it's also a fact that Buxton's 137 games in center in 2017 is a statistical outlier. Hoping that Buck plays even half the season in center might be wishful thinking. Duvall probably could handle it, but do not expect him to be what he once was on defense.
Duvall made $7 million in 2023 and as much as $9.275 million in 2022, and is probably hoping for a multi-year offer that at least splits the difference annually.
Michael A. Taylor
You remember him. This is the player the Twins probably should just sign. He did two things in 2023 that they probably need in 2024: He played great in center field and he mashed left-handed pitching.
Taylor turns 33 around opening day and his defense did slip a little in '23, and it's possible these are the reasons he remains unsigned. But he still ranked No. 8 in center fielders at Fielding Bible, and he was in the 94th percentile in range at Savant. He also slugged .602 in 112 plate appearances against lefties. Based on his career marks, this seems unlikely to repeat, but he has been a strong bat (or strong-ish) in the past against lefties. He knows the ballpark, the clubhouse, the manager and the expectations. If he needs to play 125 games in center, the Twins know he can do that.
Would two years and $12 million get it done?
Tommy Pham
If the Twins are just looking for a platoon partner for Matt Wallner who also could play every day in left for a bit if necessary, this is the guy. Pham was about 10 percent better than league average against righties and lefties, hitting .256/.329/.446 with 16 homers, 27 doubles, 47 walks and 22 stolen bases in 129 games overall. He turns 36 in March, and sometimes there's drama with his fantasy football team, but he's a guy who would help the overall effort. He could cover center field briefly but hasn't done it a lot since 2018 and Fielding Bible ranked him 24th even then.
Randal Grichuk
Grichuk turned 32 in August, and his rèsumé says he's a .249/.296/.465 (a hair above league average) who hits 27 home runs and 33 doubles every 162 games. Fielding Bible ranked him 18th among right fielders in 2022 and 24th among left fielders in 2023. He played 145 2/3 innings in center in '23 and wasn't effective.He is a little like Duvall in that he can hit for some power and you could probably put him in center field for 50 games if you had to. Or less, if the boys on the farm arrive fast enough.
Missed the Cut
Whit Merrifield
Enríque Hernández
Robbie Grossman (good against lefties, knows the way to the ballpark)