Trade Grades: Grading the Twins at the 2022 Deadline
Trade Grades: Grading the Twins at the 2022 Deadline
With the dust settled, how did the Twins make out at the deadline?
Someone asked in a recent mailbag what the biggest deadline acquisition had been for the Minnesota Twins, and if this year’s deadline would beat that.
My answer at the time was, first of all, a very tentative “I don’t know, maybe Shannon Stewart, Rick Reed or someone like that?”
The Twins have been more associated with selling at the deadline, with the 2018 deadline being especially maligned at the time but returning contributors like Devin Smelter, Gilberto Celestino, Jorge Alcala and oh yeah, Jhoan Duran. Even Luke Raley was eventually flipped in the Kenta Maeda deal (better known as the Mookie Betts deal, but I digress).
My second answer was something along the lines of “I sure hope so” as the things plaguing the Twins going into the deadline were fairly obvious and, as luck would have it, wound up being fairly reasonable to fix.
The three moves the Twins made each by themselves are probably fairly high on the hypothetical power rankings of all-time deals for the team at the deadline.
I would make the case that the Tyler Mahle deal is the biggest.
But how did the team do in each trade? How do they grade out on the whole at the deadline?
Let’s talk to it:
Trade 1: Twins trade Juan Nunez, Cade Povich, Juan Rojas and Yennier Cano to the Orioles for Jorge Lopez
The first deal of the day dropped fairly early (at least I heard about it sometime around 9:00 a.m.). It would have to be considered at least a moderate surprise, as Lopez was not necessarily expected to be moved, but if he was would be one of the best relievers to switch hands.
Twins fans of a certain age might remember him nearly no-hitting the team with the Royals (perfect game, even) back in that dreadful 2018 season:
To say things have changed in the meantime is an understatement. Lopez has a career bWAR of 0.6, with 1.9 of those wins above replacement coming this year.
Yeah, read that again. You read it right the first time.
By moving to the bullpen on a full-time basis, Lopez has reinvented himself at age 29 basically by doing exactly what he did in his first save with the Twins: throwing a heavy sinker in the upper 90s to generate massive amounts of grounders while also spinning a good curveball (.215 OPS against) along with a handful of changeups (.454) and sliders (.461).
Wonder if anyone thought Lopez could be a nice get for someone a while back?
Gratuitous back-patting aside, Lopez will help the Twins at the back of games and is under club control through the 2024 season (his age-31 campaign).
And if the return felt somewhat light for one of the best relievers in the game today, it seems to have worked in the Twins’ favor that Lopez’s run of success is an excessively short one.
Lopez, who has pitched in the big leagues at various points since the 2015 season, came into 2022 with a career ERA of 6.04, a FIP of 5.15 and a WHIP of 1.55. If wins and losses are your flavor, he was 3-14 last season for the Orioles with an ERA of 6.07.
However, the new role seems to clearly suit him, and there isn’t anything in his peripherals that suggests this is smoke and mirrors.
In return, the Orioles got Cano, who has electric stuff but has been wildly inconsistent in his brief MLB time and is just a year younger than Lopez. Additionally, Nunez and Rojas are rolls of the dice from down at the Fort Myers complex, while Povich is the real “get” of this trade.
Even still, Povich slots in as the Orioles’ No. 26 prospect in what Fangraphs lists as the No. 1 farm system across all MLB.
The Twins, by comparison, rank 15th.
Povich is a southpaw with good command of a repertoire that starts with a fastball in the 92-93 mph range. He’s tickled 95 mph with it, with most prospect outlets suggesting his future is as a mid-rotation starter. As is, he’ll join a crowded and deep Orioles farm system pitching-wise as he continues to move up the ladder.
He’s yet to face competition much older than he is, though (minus-1.1 years from the average age at High-A this season).
Trade Grade: A. Maybe one of the pitchers pops and turns into something more than a swingman/back-end type, but I don’t know that I see it.
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Trade 2: Twins trade Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Steve Hajjar and Spencer Steer to the Reds for Tyler Mahle
The Twins went back to the well again with the Reds when searching for a solid MLB starter, this time coming back with Mahle after grabbing Sonny Gray this spring.
The general thought around Twins Twitter was that a pitcher of this caliber would cost them one of the team’s most prized prospects or youngsters like Simeon Woods Richardson, Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff or Trevor Larnach.
In the end, it didn’t even end up costing the Twins prospects like Matt Wallner, Austin Martin (who I still like), Matt Canterino or even the scuffling Jordan Balazovic, whom teams would seem likely to want to claim and stash after seeing his value tumble this season.
This isn’t to say that the Twins traded nobody for Mahle, who will most likely start Game 1 or 2 in a hypothetical postseason series. In a system now ranked ninth by Fangraphs, the Reds added prospects Nos. 7 (Steer), 17 (Encarnacion-Strand) and 30 (Hajjar) for Mahle. For what it’s worth, Chase Petty — the Gray return — is ninth.
Hajjar has the look of a pitching prospect who could have some helium as a big, strong lefty but there’s nothing in his profile that says he’s as likely to ascend up the rankings as he is to fade into organizational obscurity, either.
Encarnacion-Strand can absolutely mash, but doesn’t have a defensive position and the Twins are already flush with hitting prospects such that he still wasn’t anywhere close to the team’s top 10.
Steer is the real get here, and it won’t be a surprise to see him debut in short order for a woeful Reds team that has been starved for shortstop production in recent seasons (though he may end up at third base). Steer was solid between High-A and Double-A last season, but took it to the next level with an OPS hovering around .900 between stops at Double- and Triple-A.
But again, the Twins are flush with shortstop-ish prospects and don’t really have that many openings in the infield in the first place — and even fewer if they find a way to keep Lewis upright and Carlos Correa in the organization.
So the Twins traded from a place of depth — as opposed to strength, I think you could say — and addressed a massive weakness.
How good is Mahle? I’m glad you asked.
I went back and watched some footage of the righty and came away impressed with the way he adds and subtracts on his fastball. He’ll range from 91-96 mph based on his situation, and the splitter he throws has excellent fade.
Fans will see his 4.40 ERA this season and immediately be turned off, but the 3.75 and 3.59 marks he posted last season are closer to the full story (3.60 FIP this season).
Like many Reds pitchers, the Jekyll and Hyde portion of their career is pitching home games at Great American Ball Park. Mahle, a career member of the Reds heading into Friday’s start at Target Field, has allowed a .254/.334/.473 line at GABP against just a .243/.309/.373 mark on the road.
Similarly, opposing batters have gotten Mahle for 1.92 home runs per nine innings at GABP against just 0.82 on the road. For comparison’s sake, a good starting pitcher can be in the 1.00-1.20ish range before it gets a little dicier.
Now none of this is to say that he’s simply making only road starts from here on out. It’s unclear what kind of effect leaving GABP will have on Mahle, but it stands to reason it should only be positive.
And it would be positive for a pitcher who has already totaled plus-2.2 fWAR this season and was worth plus-3.8 last season. By comparison, Gray leads the Twins this season at plus-1.6 and only one other pitcher (Joe Ryan) is within a win (plus-1.2).
Mahle provides immediate stability in a rotation that can now go at least three deep in a postseason series with him, Gray and Ryan. That, paired with a bullpen that has enough octane on the back end to keep leads gives the Twins a much better chance in October than seasons before.
In my estimation, the best teams in October can condense their pitching staffs easily into who their best pitchers are, while saving some others to eat up any innings if a game, heaven forbid, gets out of hand. The Twins are well equipped for a starter to go 4-5 innings in a playoff game before handing the game off to Griffin Jax, Lopez, Duran and the guy we’ll mention next, as well.
Trade Grade: A. While the trade didn’t net Cincinnati any big-time prospects, they received enough depth that made it a good trade for both sides.
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Trade 3: Twins trade Sawyer Gipson-Long to Tigers for Michael Fulmer
The final trade of the day came just before the final buzzer, with the Twins acquiring Fulmer to give them yet another late-inning option.
Sawyer Gipson-Long, for what it’s worth, did not crack Detroit’s top 30 list on MLB.com and it’s not a farm system that is very well-regarded (No. 24 via Fangraphs).
Fulmer’s case is almost like Lopez but a year further back. The burly righty came back from significant arm issues but was battered and bruised in 10 starts in 2020 (8.78 ERA/6.91 FIP/2.06 WHIP). He returned in 2021 to make 52 appearances (all but four out of the bullpen) and looked great, posting a 2.97 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning.
This year was more of the same, though with a raise in walk rate that may or may not preclude him from being the top option in the bullpen outside of Lopez or Duran.
Where Fulmer excels is against right-handed hitters, as he’s allowed just a .393 OPS to them this season with just one extra-base hit (a double).
Fulmer is by no means teflon, but should still help this bullpen immensely. He’s allowed an .827 OPS over the last 28 days and an .881 mark over the last 14. Lefties have riddled him for a .310/.400/.466 line.
But with that said, he’s going to face mostly righties anyway and will probably never be higher than fourth in the team’s bullpen hierarchy. In that sense, he’s a huge get and it cost the team almost nothing.
Trade Grade: A. The Twins traded a modest prospect for a relief upgrade who only had to walk across the hallway to join the team. That feels like a win.
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Overall grade: A-.
Hold up. How can all three trades be deemed as A grades but the deadline be an A-? In my estimation, the team needed one more starter to have an absolutely perfect deadline. If they could have pulled the trigger on a Nathan Eovaldi or Martin Perez type to help nail down the back of the rotation, we’re looking at an A.
Even still, they surpassed my over/under of 2.5 pitchers acquired, and even landed a backup catcher with almost 4,000 career innings caught in the big leagues who hit a two-run double in his first plate appearance with the team.
I think you have to say the Twins knocked this deadline out of the park.