Twins 40-Man Worksheet: Should He Stay or Should He Go?

With the end of the season imminent, how will the 40-man roster shake out?

The first news bit of interest for teams not qualifying for the playoffs is the 40-man roster housecleaning that teams must to to prepare for the offseason.

As much as teams have subtractions, they also have to prepare for additions to protect prospects from being sniped in the Rule 5 draft, a la Akil Baddoo, Stuart Turner and more than a few players over the last few years for the Twins.

So let’s quickly dive into what the 40-man roster looks like right now, and what we think it’ll look like in a few weeks.

Let’s talk to it:

The Free Agents (come off 40 at end of the season automatically)

RHP Michael Fulmer: I wouldn’t expect much more than modest interest in bringing him back on a one-year deal in 2023.

C Gary Sanchez: I don’t see the Twins re-signing Sanchez, as they’ll target someone more defensively-minded to back up Ryan Jeffers next season (Jason Castro?).

C Sandy Leon: If Leon returns, it’ll be as minor-league depth.

OF Billy Hamilton: Thanks for your service.

The 60-Day IL (must be re-added at end of season)

IF Miguel Sano: Sano will be activated and then have his 2023 option ($14 million) bought out for $2.75 million. His market will be fascinating, but he seems destined to land on a non-contender as a potential flip candidate.

RP Jorge Alcala: Who knows how different the season would look if Alcala remained healthy this season? It feels like the late-inning doses of Emilio Pagan would have been tempered much earlier in the season — which would have helped a lot. Nevertheless, if he's healthy, he’ll be a shot in the arm for the bullpen next season.

LHP Danny Coulombe: Coulombe battled hip issues, limiting him to just 12.1 big-league innings this season. He pitched respectably in those innings (1.46 ERA but 9-9 K/BB ratio), but will likely be non-tendered and have to settle for a minor-league deal this offseason — possibly with the Twins again, as happened last offseason.

RHP Kenta Maeda: All indications are that Maeda is healthy and ready to help the team in 2023 — though it remains unclear if it’s as a starter or a reliever.

RHP Chris Paddack: Paddack will be re-added to the 60-day IL as soon as he’s eligible, as he’ll miss most of next season due to Tommy John surgery.

RHP Jhon Romero: Romero’s situation is unclear as his last Rotoworld update came in May. If he’s healthy, he’ll probably be in a crowded mix for bullpen spots to open next season. Not much can be gleaned from his 5.0-inning sample this year, but he throws pretty hard and throws a lot of sliders. I think he’s maybe on the tail-end of the 40 but should survive the offseason.

RHP Cody Stashak: The 28-year-old righty was off to a strong start to the season (3.86 ERA in 16.1 IP, 15-0 K/BB ratio) before his season was derailed in late May with a right shoulder impingement that eventually required surgery for a torn labrum. If he can get healthy — a big if with shoulder surgery — he’ll probably be in the mix for a bullpen spot. With shoulder surgery, however, this could be another 60-day IL situation like Paddack to start the season.

IF/OFish Royce Lewis: Here’s another player who’ll hit the 60-day as soon as he’s eligible, though the hope would likely be that he can help the team around the All-Star break in 2023. Is he a shortstop? Outfielder? Third baseman? Once he’s healthy, these questions will loom large.

OF Alex Kirilloff: AK had season-ending surgery in early August, and that’s really the only thing preventing him from getting plenty of run — in the outfield or at first base, both of which aren’t terribly stable for the Twins right now. Wrist injuries are tricky, however; he had season-ending surgery almost exactly a year before his 2022 procedure as well.

OF Trevor Larnach: Pretty much everything said about Kirilloff applies here for Larnach, who was desperately missed after having core muscle surgery in late June. Both he and Kirilloff could have huge roles next season, especially if the Twins trade Max Kepler (which I think could happen).

The Options

SS Carlos Correa (can opt out of final two years at $35.1 million each): If you love somebody, let them go, for if they return, they were always yours. And if they don't, they never were.

RHP Sonny Gray ($12 million team option): This is an easy yes, and the Twins should potentially consider a short-ish extension with Gray, who turns 33 on Nov. 7. He was very good this season, though the Twins would like to get 5-to-7 more starts next year than this (24).

RHP Chris Archer ($10 million mutual option, $750k buyout): Easy decline on this option, but maybe he returns on a minor-league deal.

RHP Dylan Bundy ($11 million team option, $1 million buyout): Another easy decline here.

The Arbitration Eligibles

IF Gio Urshela: Urshela made $6.5 million this season, so his final year of arbitration will probably look something like $9 million in 2023. You might find some dissenters, but this is a pretty easy yes for me.

RHP Emilio Pagan: Pagan made $2.3 million to be an unmitigated disaster this season. He has one more year of arbitration eligibility and would probably get a bump to something like $3 million. I’d probably pass, but they haven’t been able to quit him yet, so why expect them to start now?

IF Luis Arraez: Arraez made $2.125 million this season, so I’d expect him to get something like $4.5-5 million next season. He’s eligible for free agency after the 2025 season, so I wouldn’t expect the Twins to rush to do much with him outside of going year-to-year.

LHP Caleb Thielbar: He’ll likely get a solid raise from the $1.3 million this season, but he proved to be a capable reliever when used in the right spots. He’ll probably be back somewhere in the range of $2 million.

RHP Jorge Lopez: The road was bumpy after Lopez came over from the Orioles (4.57 ERA/4.50 FIP, 1.71 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 5.8 BB/9), but I’m still expecting big things from him based on his pitch mix and how good he was with the Orioles. He’ll probably see a jump from his $1.5 million salary to somewhere in the vicinity of $3-4 million, which is an easy yes for the Twins.

RHP Tyler Mahle: This is an easy yes, though he’ll have to get his shoulder right — which is no small task. He’s probably looking at $7-8 million in arbitration.

OF Jake Cave: He might not be an immediate outright, but I think he’s on the 40-man chopping block all offseason if not. The 2019 season (.805 OPS) feels so long ago (.621 since).

OF Kyle Garlick: He certainly had a role and filled it well on this team, but how much does a young team that may or may not be good in the future need a platoon outfielder? I suspect he stays on the 40 for at least part of the offseason, a la Cave.

The Pre-Arb Guys/Minor Leaguers

RHP Jordan Balazovic: Coming off a brutal season at St. Paul (7.39 ERA in 70.2 IP), but he was healthy enough to finish out the season. If he fails to move forward in 2023, he will likely be moved to the bullpen — possibly early in the season.

RHP Jhoan Duran: What do you think?

RHP Blayne Enlow: Enlow’s return from Tommy John surgery was a bit uneven, but that’s to be expected. It’s hard to say if he’ll be able to help the big club in 2023 at any point, but simply getting him healthy is a start.

RHP Ronny Henriquez: I’m not sure what the future holds for Henriquez, but he’s shown enough in 11.2 big-league innings to say he deserves a look for the Opening Day bullpen next season. He’s a mystery, but a good one.

RHP Griffin Jax: Jax isn’t the first iffy starter to turn their career around with a move to the bullpen — Trevor May, Tyler Duffey and even Glen Perkins come to mind — but he’s the latest. He quickly earned the trust of Rocco Baldelli late in games, and the primary issue all season was that there weren’t two or three more of him. I can’t see anyone other than Duran or Lopez guaranteed to work bigger innings next season.

RHP Trevor Megill: Megill is hard to figure, because the Twins certainly like him, but he’s also heading into his age-29 season. He was more good than bad for the Twins — and he throws in the high 90s, besides — but we’ve seen this front office group drop similarly-talented relievers in the offseason as well (Oliver Drake, Matt Wisler come to mind). I think he should stay, but I don't know if he will.

LHP Jovani Moran: Heat from the left side will never go out of style. Without command, he’s going to be a guy who tries to keep the Twins in a game they’re trailing 5-2 in the seventh; with command, the sky’s the limit.

RHP Bailey Ober: The good — he was terrific this season. The bad — for 51.0 innings, so far. If the Twins open next season with Ober as the team’s No. 5 starter, they’re in very good shape.

RHP Joe Ryan: He probably pitched better than you realize (2.1 fWAR in 147.0 innings) and looks like he could be a very dependable No. 3 starter in the league for a decade. The Twins made out like bandits in the Nelson Cruz trade, even with Drew Strotman pitching elsewhere.

RHP Cole Sands: Sands showed some potential down the stretch, and was drafted by this front-office group. It seems likely they’ll find a role for him moving forward.

LHP Devin Smeltzer: If he lasts the first batch of outrights — and I think he probably will — he’ll be one of the first ones on the chopping block. He had a nice stretch this season but was otherwise uninspiring.

RHP Louie Varland: This bit of big-league experience should be valuable. It’s incredible to see how far he’s come in just a few seasons.

RHP Josh Winder: He’s basically in the same boat as Sands, with a clearer path to work in 2023.

C Caleb Hamilton: He’d be on shakier ground if the Twins had more than Jeffers on the 40-man roster. If/when they sign a catcher this offseason, he could be on the chopping block (if he isn’t already).

IF Jose Miranda: Over his last 103 games since his “demotion” to St. Paul in late May, Miranda has hit .289/.346/.455 with 162-game paces for 31 doubles, 22 homers and 96 RBI. Will he play first or third long-term? Or will he DH? Time will tell.

IF Jermaine Palacios: He really, really, really didn’t hit, but I think his defense is probably good enough to have a future as a utility man. He’s already 26, so the future is now.

IF/OF Nick Gordon: He’s done more than enough to be the team’s top backup at virtually five or six defensive positions and probably a capable backup at a couple more. I think his long-term viability hinges on his plate discipline, but he’s a big leaguer.

OF Gilberto Celestino: Good defense and the occasional hit the other way profiles well as a fourth outfielder but probably shouldn't get 335 plate appearances on a good team. Has he driven enough people mad with his lapses to find himself on the outside looking in? I don’t think so, but wouldn’t be surprised.

OF Mark Contreras: He plays good defense, but he’ll be 28 before next season and may never hit. He’s on shaky ground.

C Ryan Jeffers: He probably hit better than you realize (89 OPS+) and it’s undeniable he’s by far the best defensive catcher on the roster. The Twins will support him with a capable veteran mentor in the offseason, but he’ll be the primary guy (again, I’m thinking Jason Castro).

OF Matt Wallner - He’s more mobile than many expected so maybe there’s some hope for him as a defensive outfielder, but for now defense and contact are the primary issues. The power is immense, but if he doesn’t round into form he’s probably a poor man’s Adam Dunn.

RHP Simeon Woods Richardson: He was going to be added to the 40-man roster in the offseason anyway, so the Twins gave him a quick cameo in Detroit on Sunday — and he pitched well enough to go into the offseason with an idea of what it takes to compete at that level.

The Ones with Equity

IF Jorge Polanco: Maybe he moves if someone comes calling with one year guaranteed left on his deal — and two modest options after that — the Twins will move him and give Arraez second base full-time (or to share time with Gordon).

OF Byron Buxton: Get well soon.

OF Max Kepler: I feel like Kepler has a foot out the door with his salary slated to increase, his offensive production decreasing and the team having a glut of corner outfield types in the high minors or having recently debuted in the big leagues.

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The Possible Additions

This list is courtesy of Roster Resource and it’s simply who I think the Twins are most likely to add to the 40-man roster this offseason (and protect from the Rule 5 draft):

C Chris Williams: He mashed at Wichita (.915 OPS in 75 games) but was markedly less productive at St. Paul (.714 in 42 games). Depending on how good he is defensively, he could have a shot to leapfrog Caleb Hamilton on the organizational depth chart. But if that were the case, he probably would have down the stretch this season, right? I’m leaning no here.

1B/C Roy Morales: I don’t think so, but this year’s numbers aren’t easy to ignore: .304/.408/.413 in 218 plate appearances between Wichita and St. Paul.

IF Andrew Bechtold: If he was younger, I’d say yes. He’ll be 27 early next season, and hit just .220/.324/.373 in limited action at St. Paul after respectable numbers in Wichita (.238/.331/.409).

P Austin Schulfer: I lean toward yes. Schulfer worked almost exclusively as a releiver this season, but was incredible at Wichita (0.39 ERA in 23.0 IP) before running into a bit more trouble in St. Paul (5.23 ERA in 32.2 IP). I could see the Twins not adding him and someone else taking a shot on him in the R5, most likely.

P Zach Neff: I’m not totally sure on this one. I suspect not, as he didn’t pitch this last season and was merely good rather than great at Wichita in 2021. I don’t think he’ll be taken in the R5.

P Alex Phillips: I don’t think so. The numbers pop at Wichita (2.42 ERA, 14.1 K/9) but too many walks (4.4 per nine) and home runs (1.2 per nine) along with his age (28 in December) work against him.

P Evan Sisk: I know Twins Twitter loves him but I just don’t see it. He’s an odd fit in today’s game with one-out relievers no longer a thing, but the numbers were so good this year he could still get a look. But if so, why didn’t he already?

C/1B Jair Camargo: This one is tough for me. He’s impossibly young — entering his age-23 season — and the bat showed some life in the upper minors this season (including a .239/.306/.472 line in 46 games at Double-A Wichita. He’s also had pretty good success rates nabbing attempted base thieves in the minors (32 percent). My gut says probably not, but I can’t say for sure.

IF Yunior Severino: They probably have to, right? Severino was so good this seasoan — .278/.370/.536 between High-A and Double-A — that they probably have to give Severino a look.

OF DaShawn Keirsey Jr.: My initial thought was no, but he committed just one error last season and hit .271/.329/.395 witth 42 stolen bases at Wichita. That’s nothing to shake a stick at.

P Andrew Cabezas: Doubt it. The numbers have been really good in the past but he was 25 at Double-A with 7.7 K/9 as a reliever at Double-A.

C Alex Isola: I would say yes, though I am curious if the numbers on Baseball Reference are accurate. They say in 18 games of catching at Wichita this season, Isola had 38 stolen bases against just one caught stealing — a 3 percent success rate.

IF Edouard Julien: This is the first one I would say is a lead pipe lock.

UTIL Anthony Prato: I really doubt it, but he hit .285/.383/.444 between Cedar Rapids and Wichita, and he played 109.0 error free innings at Double-A. I don’t know if any of this means anything, but he had a much better year than I realized.

IF Will Holland: He’d be nice to have in a Royce Lewis-lite role — he’s played second, third, short, center, left right field in the minors — but I’m not sure he’s hit enough to merit that consideration (.227/.339/.378 between High-A and Double-A this season). He’ll turn 25 in April.

P Matt Canterino: He’ll be added and eventually moved to the 60-day IL, unless the Twins keep him active like they did Enlow this season (I believe because then those days aren’t counted as service).

P Cody Laweryson: I honestly have no idea. He was so good at Cedar Rapids and Wichita — combined 1.62 ERA, 10.6 K/9 and 0.98 WHIP — but he was also in his age-24 season (about average for Double-A). If it was a blind choice based on just his numbers, I’d have a hard time saying no.

P Brent Headrick: The numbers say yes: 3.32 ERA, 11.3 K/9 and 1.08 WHIP in 108.1 IP between Cedar Rapids and Wichita. I’m not sure what the numbers say, though. This team already has a lot of players to get back onto the 40-man roster via the 60-day to really have a feel for how many spots they’ll have for young guys — but I doubt it’s many.

OF Misael Urbina: I’m not sure Urbina is actually R5 eligible. Roster Resource sometimes has July 2 signees off by a year. If he’s eligible, he’s in.

UTIL Michael Helman: I’m conflicted here. He hit .250/.325/.416 once promoted to St. Paul and stole 30 bags while only being caught five times. He plays all over, and brings another element the team doesn’t really have much of. But he’s also heading into his age-27 season and faded pretty hard down the stretch (.631 OPS in September). He doesn’t play enough shortstop for me to add him.

IF Wander Javier: I think that ship has sailed, Dusty Colorado.