Twins Week in Review: 4/25-5/1
Where do the Minnesota Twins rank in myriad statistics over the last week?
Welcome to The Minnesota Twins Week in Review. On Access Twins, we’ll take a deep dive into the week that was for your Twins. We will post on Mondays, and look back from the previous Monday to Sunday since that’s how MLB lines up its schedule.
If you have any ideas for stats to be added, please feel free to let me know in the comments, on Facebook or on Twitter!
And now, let’s talk to it:
Record: 5-1, .833 (t-3rd) — 3-0 at home, 2-1 on the road
Current Fangraphs Record Projection: 84-78, .519 (1st place, +3 wins & +1 place in division)
Current Fangraphs Division Chances: 50.6 percent (+19.9 percent)
Current Fangraphs Playoff Chances: 61.4 percent (+17.9 percent)
Baseball Prospectus PECOTA Record Projection: 89-73 (1st place, +2 wins & +1 place in division)
Baseball Prospectus Division Chances: 57.1 percent (+13.1 percent)
Baseball Prospectus Playoff Chances: 74.2 percent (+10.7 percent)
FiveThirtyEight Record Projection: 87-75 (1st place, +3 wins & +1 place in division)
FiveThirtyEight Division Chances: 49.0 percent (+17.0 percent)
FiveThirtyEight Playoff Chances: 64.0 percent (+16.0 percent)
Baseball Reference Record Projection: 84-78 (1st place)
Baseball Reference Division Chances: 32.1 percent
Baseball Reference Playoff Chances: 45.4 percent
Breakdown: It’s kind of wild that it’s barely May, but two of the three projection systems we use list the Twins as better than 50 percent to win the division, while the sole holdout is FiveThirtyEight, at a meager 49 percent (kidding, obviously).
They didn’t do either of the things I listed below, but they did sign Carlos Correa and add some pitching. I’ve thought for a long time they were close to good than bad, even if they did or did not “have a freaking offseason.” Your mileage may vary there.
Mike Bates @MikeBatesTWIBHMan, the PECOTA standings look good for the Twins if they add another pitcher and a shortstop. https://t.co/qYQMKSNdeG
Hitting (with MLB rankings)
Batting Average: .268 (5th)
On-Base Percentage: .327 (7th)
Slugging Percentage: .459 (3rd)
OPS: .786 (5th)
wOBA: .350 (5th)
wRC+: 132 (4th)
Runs Per Game: 6.00 (t-3rd)
Batting Average (w/ RISP): .393 (1st)
Avg Exit Velo: 91.0 mph (2nd)
Breakdown: Last week we noted that the Twins were fifth in MLB with a .718 OPS. This week, they’re still fifth but with a nearly 70-point increase in OPS, which suggests that offenses seem to be warming up a bit as the calendar flips. (Note: I did NOT say the weather warmed up, because it has NOT here in Minnesota, ha.)
I think depth is going to be key for this offense, and I also believe that has borne out lately with a handful of guys carrying the offense each night, rotating in and out like a hockey team taking shifts or something to that effect.
Either way, this is a good baseball team and a good offense.
Starting Pitching (with MLB rankings)
IP: 32.1 (t-17th)
IP/GS: 5.39 (t-13th)
Pitches/Start: 84.3 (14th)
ERA: 2.51 (5th)
FIP: 2.99 (7th)
xFIP: 2.84 (4th)
SIERA: 3.04 (4th)
Groundball Rate: 42.3 percent (21st)
K/9: 10.02 (5th)
K%: 28.6 percent (3rd)
BB/9: 2.78 (17th)
BB%: 5.3 percent (7th)
K-BB%: 20.6 percent (4th)
WHIP: 1.02 (10th)
Opponent Batting Average: .198 (9th)
Opponent On-Base Percentage: .262 (11th)
Opponent Slugging Percentage: .328 (910h)
Opponent OPS: .589 (10th)
Avg Exit Velo: 85.0 mph (3rd)
Breakdown: It seems pretty remarkable, but there wasn’t a ton of movement on most of these. The Twins’ starting staff, for the most part, appears to be fairly stable and rather good. They aren’t blowing hitters away like the Brewers (12.1 K/9 last week) or being excessively stingy like the Dodgers on the scoreboard (1.29 ERA last week), but they’re doing more than enough, when paired with their offense, to win quite a few ballgames.
That should be pretty sustainable.
Relief Pitching (with MLB rankings)
IP: 20.2 (t-19th)
Innings Per Game: 3.44 (t-16th)
Pitches Per Game: 53.5 (22nd)
ERA: 2.61 (5th)
FIP: 2.65 (5th)
xFIP: 3.23 (5th)
SIERA: 2.91 (5th)
Groundball Rate: 44.8 percent (12th)
K/9: 8.71 (16th)
K%: 23.8 percent (t-11th)
BB/9: 2.18 (5th)
BB%: 6.0 percent (5th)
K-BB%: 17.9 percent (6th)
WHIP: 1.11 (5th)
Opponent Batting Average: .231 (t-10th)
Opponent On-Base Percentage: .286 (t-4th)
Opponent Slugging Percentage: .333 (t-7th)
Opponent OPS: .619 (4th)
Inherited Runners: 5 (t-3rd)
Inherited Runners Scored: 2 (t-7th)
Inherited Runners Scored Percentage: 40.0 percent (t-19th)
Breakdown: And here we have the hidden gem of the 2022 Twins — the bullpen. After the Twins traded Taylor Rogers, it felt as though many expected the bullpen to be a rollercoaster free-for-all, but it’s actually been fairly stable thanks in large part to the emergence of Jhoan Duran, and to some extent Griffin Jax, as well as quietly solid production from guys like Joe Smith (unscored upon in 7.2 innings), Cody Stashak (3.86 ERA/2.66 FIP in 7.0 IP) and even Jhon Romero (6-1 K/BB, 3.60 ERA in 5.0 IP).
Can the bullpen keep this up? It’s hard to say based on the true volatility of the position. But it was a good week, with potential for more to come with a lighter schedule coming up.
All research is done via Sportradar’s r360, Baseball-Reference or Fangraphs unless otherwise noted.
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