Twins Week in Review: 5/10-5/16
It wasn't pretty, guys
Welcome to a new feature on Access Twins as we’ll take a deep dive into the week that was for your Minnesota Twins. We will post on Mondays, and look back from the previous Monday to Sunday since that’s how MLB lines up its schedule.
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And now, let’s talk to it:
Record: 1-5, .167 (29th) — 1-2 at home, 1-3 on the road
Current Fangraphs Record Projection: 78-84, .484 (3rd place)
Current Fangraphs Division Chances: 6.0 percent
Current Fangraphs Playoff Chances: 9.3 percent
Baseball Prospectus PECOTA Record Projection: 82-80 (3rd place)
Baseball Prospectus Division Chances: 17.1 percent
Baseball Prospectus Playoff Chances: 22.9 percent
Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Playoff Chances: 20.0 percent
FiveThirtyEight Record Projection: 77-85
FiveThirtyEight Division Chances: 6 percent
FiveThirtyEight Playoff Chances: 10 percent
Breakdown: I still believe in this team’s chances to rebound from this atrocious start, but it’s getting late early. Only one team in the World Series era has made the playoffs after winning 13 or fewer games in their first 28 — the 1914 Boston Braves, according to Sportradar/r360.
Video credit to Tom Froemming of Twins Daily (please click the link to support the content)
That team started 11-26-1 — then rallied to finish 94-59 and sweep the World Series in four games over Connie Mack’s Philadelphia A’s. That team had five future Hall of Famers — Home Run Baker, Chief Bender, Herb Pennock, Eddie Plank and Eddie Collins — while the Braves had two in Rabbit Maranville and Johnny Evers.
Hitting (with rankings)
Batting Average: .250 (12th)
On-Base Percentage: .323 (12th)
Slugging Percentage: .401 (15th)
OPS: .724 (16th)
wOBA: .318 (15th)
wRC+: 104 (13th)
Runs Per Game: 4.17 (t-14th)
Batting Average (w/ RISP): .230 (20th)
Breakdown: It was a bad week to be sure, but the offense was surprisingly average. This is pretty much par for the course, as the Twins are hitting .243/.314/.421 for the season (.321 wOBA/106 wRC+) and their position players have combined for 6.7 fWAR (fifth in MLB).
Seven players with appreciable plate appearances had a wRC+ over 100 this week:
Max Kepler - 153
Andrelton Simmons - 145
Trevor Larnach - 136
Willians Astudillo - 132
Jorge Polanco - 127
Josh Donaldson - 117
Miguel Sano - 100
Nelson Cruz wasn’t far behind either, as he hit .280/.308/.440 for a wRC+ of 99. Meanwhile, Luis Arraez (14 wRC+) and Mitch Garver (minus-7) struggled mightily.
Starting Pitching (with rankings)
IP: 30.2 (t-19th)
IP/GS: 5.11 (t-19th)
Pitches/Start: 92.7 (5th)
ERA: 7.92 (30th)
FIP: 6.30 (30th)
xFIP: 4.89 (27th)
SIERA: 4.71 (26th)
K/9: 7.3 (24th)
K%: 18.5 percent (27th)
BB/9: 2.93 (19th)
BB%: 7.4 percent (18th)
K-BB%: 11.1 percent (24th)
WHIP: 1.57 (25th)
Opponent Batting Average: .309 (27th)
Opponent On-Base Percentage: .361 (25th)
Opponent Slugging Percentage: .626 (30th)
Opponent OPS: .987 (30th)
Breakdown: The starting pitching was absolutely annihilated this week, allowing an OPS that is basically the equivalent of what Bryce Harper (.997) has done to opposing pitchers all season.
The most obvious change that should be made is moving Matt Shoemaker to the bullpen as the long guy and installing either Randy Dobnak or Lewis Thorpe in the rotation — more on that later this week — but the reality is that Kenta Maeda and even Jose Berrios in some respects have to get right.
It’s a similar issue with the bullpen — if the foundation isn’t strong, the rest of the unit crumbles.
Relief Pitching (with rankings)
IP: 20.1 (t-21st)
ERA: 4.43 (18th)
FIP: 3.97 (16th)
xFIP: 3.99 (13th)
SIERA: 3.31 (6th)
K/9: 12.8 (1st)
K%: 30.2 percent (3rd)
BB/9: 4.43 (19th)
BB%: 10.4 percent (15th)
K-BB%: 19.8 percent (6th)
WHIP: 1.57 (22nd)
Opponent Batting Average: .268 (25th)
Opponent On-Base Percentage: .358 (t-21st)
Opponent Slugging Percentage: .415 (22nd)
Opponent OPS: .773 (24th)
Inherited Runners: 10 (17th)
Inherited Runners Scored: 9 (28th)
Inherited Runners Scored Percentage: 90 percent (30th)
Breakdown: Nobody is going to want to hear it, but there’s some correction coming based on their secondary stats. Nobody in the bullpen threw more than 3.2 innings (Derek Law), but the biggest issue was who threw the most innings in the bullpen last week:
Caleb Thielbar (3.1)
Shaun Anderson (3.0)
Meanwhile, Taylor Rogers, Alex Colome and Hansel Robles combined threw 5.2 innings. Robles and Colome didn’t give up any runs, while Rogers allowed one earned run in his two innings of work.
Colome hasn’t allowed an earned run in May (6.0 innings) with a .105/.190/.105 line against (five strikeouts, two walks and just two hits).
All research is done via Sportradar’s r360, Baseball-Reference or Fangraphs unless otherwise noted.
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