Twins Week in Review: 5.6-5.12.24
#TWiR takes a look at the Twins' stats from the last week at a glance while also combining them to the previous week
Welcome back to The Minnesota Twins Week in Review. That’s right, we’re reviving an old feature here at Access Twins.
Every Monday, we’ll take a deep dive into the week that was for your Twins. We will post on Mondays, and look back from the previous Monday to Sunday since that’s how MLB lines up its schedule.
If you have any ideas for stats to be added, please feel free to let me know in the comments, on Facebook or on Twitter!
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And now, let’s talk to it:
General Team (24-16, 0.5 GB of Cleveland)
Record: 5-2, .714 (t-2nd) — 3-1 at home, 2-1 on the road
Current Fangraphs Record Projection: 89-73, .549 (1st place)
Current Fangraphs Division Chances: 61.8 percent
Current Fangraphs Playoff Chances: 82.1 percent
Baseball Prospectus PECOTA Record Projection: 92-70 (1st place)
Baseball Prospectus Division Chances: 75.7 percent
Baseball Prospectus Playoff Chances: 89.9 percent
Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Playoff Chances: 76.4 percent
Breakdown:
It’s more than just a little wild how far this team has come in the last three-ish weeks. The Twins were 7-13 (.350) on April 21, and Fangraphs had their division-winning odds at 23.6 percent and their odds of making the playoffs at 34.1 percent.
Both of those odds have been more than doubled since then as the team has gone 17-3 in the 20 games since. I’m not sure I can recall a time as long as I’ve been watching (since 1993) that the team has played like this over an extended stretch. The team had some really, really strong moments in 2006 but I think this still might be the top of the top.
Hitting (with rankings)
Batting Average: .245 (14th)
On-Base Percentage: .288 (22nd)
Slugging Percentage: .455 (4th)
OPS: .743 (9th)
wOBA: .317 (13th)
wRC+: 110 (11th)
K%: 22.4 percent (18th)
BB%: 5.6 percent (27th)
Runs Per Game: 6.00 (t-3rd)
Batting Average (w/ RISP): .373 (3rd)
Average Exit Velocity: 89.9 mph (5th)
Breakdown:
It’s hard to argue with the offensive results, even if the batting average and on-base percentage are a little ugly. The slugging percentage and average exit velocity definitely line up, and it’s led to runs aplenty — a nice change of pace after how the team hit to start April.
If I’m entirely honest, I was shocked that two teams — Texas at .381, Kansas City at .375 — had higher batting averages with runners in scoring position.
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Starting Pitching (with rankings)
IP: 40.1 (3rd)
IP/GS: 5.76 (10th)
Pitches/Start: 94.9 (2nd)
ERA: 2.23 (4th)
FIP: 3.58 (6th)
xFIP: 3.36 (2nd)
SIERA: 3.26 (1st)
K/9: 12.05 (1st)
K%: 34.4 percent (2nd)
BB/9: 0.89 (17th)
BB%: 2.5 percent (1st)
K-BB%: 21.0 percent (1st)
WHIP: 0.87 (2nd)
HR/9: 1.12 (14th)
Groundball Rate: 38.1 percent (28th)
Opponent Batting Average: .207 (4th)
Opponent On-Base Percentage: .237 (2nd)
Opponent Slugging Percentage: .333 (3rd)
Opponent OPS: .571 (3rd)
Average Exit Velocity Allowed: 88.6 mph (11th)
Breakdown:
I’m not sure I’ve seen a more dominant week from Twins starters than this. A lot of folks bristled when preseason projections had the Twins with one of the best rotations in the American League — and understandably so given the departure of Sonny Gray — but the rotation has more or less soldiered on without him, with Simeon Woods Richardson pitching capably, if not exceptionally, in the No. 5 spot following Louie Varland’s departure.
Now, I’m curious when David Festa will get his shot, because he’s been terrific at St. Paul. Also, I was shocked by the walk rate. If you thought the offense’s walk rate was low — try cutting it in half.
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Relief Pitching (with rankings)
IP: 21.2 (t-11th)
Innings Per Game: 3.10 (22nd)
Pitches Per Game: 63.9 (7th)
ERA: 7.48 (29th)
FIP: 4.75 (23rd)
xFIP: 4.99 (26th)
SIERA: 4.58 (26th)
K/9: 8.72 (15th)
K%: 20.2 percent (21st)
BB/9: 5.82 (28th)
BB%: 13.5 percent (27th)
K-BB%: 6.7 percent (26th)
WHIP: 1.75 (28th)
HR/9: 0.83 (13th)
Groundball Rate: 36.4 percent (24th)
Opponent Batting Average: .289 (28th)
Opponent On-Base Percentage: .394 (28th)
Opponent Slugging Percentage: .398 (16th)
Opponent OPS: .792 (22nd)
Average Exit Velocity Allowed: 90.1 mph (26th)
Inherited runners scored/total: 10 of 17 (58.8 percent)
Breakdown:
The Twins bullpen picked one game for the second week in a row to obliterate the rest of the week’s statistics. Like in the Mariners series, the second game against the Blue Jays was an utter disaster, but that’s not to say that the rest of the games were much to write about, either.
In a way, it was death by paper cuts as the team’s slugging percentage allowed was comparably low to the batting average and especially on-base percentage allowed — but it came with an average exit velocity bordering on disastrous, meaning Twins relievers were likely lucky to allow such a low slugging percentage.
As noted on the Locked On Twins podcast, one can divide the bullpen into “befores” and “afters” — which is to say, pitchers who come in to pitch before the team takes a lead, and after.
Right now, the befores have had to work more of the innings usually allocated to the afters, and it’s shown as Steven Okert and Jay Jackson, especially, have been exposed while Cole Sands has picked a particularly difficult time to see a slide as well.
In short: get well soon, Justin Topa and Brock Stewart.