Twins Week in Review: 6.24-6.30.24
#TWiR takes a look at the Twins' stats from the last week at a glance while also combining them to the previous week
Welcome back to The Minnesota Twins Week in Review. That’s right, we’re reviving an old feature here at Access Twins.
Every Monday, we’ll take a deep dive into the week that was for your Twins. We will post on Mondays, and look back from the previous Monday to Sunday since that’s how MLB lines up its schedule.
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And now, let’s talk to it:
General Team (47-37, 6.0 GB of Cleveland)
Record: 4-2, .667 (t-7th) — 0-0 at home, 4-2 on the road
Current Fangraphs Record Projection: 89-73, .548 (2nd place, 3.0 GB)
Current Fangraphs Division Chances: 32.4 percent
Current Fangraphs Playoff Chances: 79.8 percent
Baseball Prospectus PECOTA Record Projection: 89-73 (2nd place, 4.0 GB)
Baseball Prospectus Division Chances: 26.9 percent
Baseball Prospectus Playoff Chances: 82.9 percent
Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Playoff Chances (to reach Divisional Series): 50.6 percent
Breakdown:
As frustrating as the team has been over extended periods this season, the Twins are still in a good spot to reach the playoffs. Closing a six-game gap on the Guardians remains the overall goal, but even if that doesn’t happen, the Twins remain in good position to grab one of the AL’s three Wild Card slots — especially in a year where so many teams are mired in mediocrity.
Furthermore, the gap in remaining strength of schedule between the Guardians and Twins has largely been closed.
Minnesota’s remaining strength of schedule is .499 (winning percentage of remaining opponents), which is the 14th-easiest the rest of the way. Cleveland, which for a long stretch of the first half had one of the toughest remaining schedules, now has a .508 mark — the ninth-most difficult, but a difference that’s more or less negligible, and probably emblematic of the widespread mediocrity across MLB this season.
The Twins will need to make the most of the remaining eight games they have against the Guardians, to be sure.
Hitting (with rankings)
Batting Average: .268 (9th)
On-Base Percentage: .310 (17th)
Slugging Percentage: .446 (8th)
OPS: .756 (10th)
wOBA: .324 (13th)
wRC+: 112 (12th)
K%: 16.7 percent (4th)
BB%: 4.3 percent (30th)
Runs Per Game: 6.17 (6th)
Batting Average (w/ RISP): .269 (17th)
Average Exit Velocity: 91.3 mph (3rd)
Breakdown:
There’s a lot to unpack here. The first thing that jumps out to me is that the team has more or less just stopped striking out. Has it come at the expense of walks? Well, there are correlation vs. causation arguments to be made there, but it’s worth considering that the Twins’ offensive improvement has been fueled by players like Jose Miranda, Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton.
Three of those four don’t really strike out, and three of those four — not the same three, mind you — don’t really walk. So to that end, I’m not entirely shocked that the Twins are succeeding this way, even if it’s unconventional.
And beyond that, they’re hitting the absolute piss out of the baseball with a 91.3 mph average exit velocity. Not striking out, hitting the ball hard and posting a high slugging percentage, at least to me, seems like a sustainable path for an offense to keep on keeping on.
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Starting Pitching (with rankings)
IP: 34.0 (14th)
IP/GS: 5.67 (t-6th)
Pitches/Start: 89.2 (9th)
ERA: 3.97 (13th)
FIP: 2.89 (2nd)
xFIP: 3.15 (4th)
SIERA: 3.11 (3rd)
K/9: 10.32 (4th)
K%: 27.9 percent (3rd)
BB/9: 1.85 (6th)
BB%: 5.0 percent (5th)
K-BB%: 22.9 percent (2nd)
WHIP: 1.06 (3rd)
HR/9: 0.79 (7th)
Groundball Rate: 40.0 percent (16th)
Opponent Batting Average: .223 (7th)
Opponent On-Base Percentage: .279 (4th)
Opponent Slugging Percentage: .369 (8th)
Opponent OPS: .648 (6th)
Average Exit Velocity Allowed: 87.8 mph (9th)
Breakdown:
The performance by itself from starters was solid, but the expected numbers suggest the best is still yet to come. While the common theme among Twins fans online seems to be that the team needs to add at least one — if not two — bullpen arms, I have a different thought.
If the Twins can add another starter — and it doesn’t even have to be someone great, but someone more stable like Paul Blackburn of the A’s (assuming he’s healthy) — that allows them to shuffle some guys around and load up a bullpen internally.
Now, a lot of that hinges on getting Brock Stewart and/or Justin Topa healthy, but that also leaves the possibility of moving Louie Varland and/or Chris Paddack to the bullpen down the stretch, or perhaps David Festa if he’s displaced from the rotation but kept in the big leagues.
But the Twins still have a month-ish to sort that out. For now, the rotation looks pretty good — certainly better than the Guardians, pound-for-pound — with more room for improvement, besides.
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Relief Pitching (with rankings)
IP: 19.1 (t-24th)
Innings Per Game: 3.22 (23rd)
Pitches Per Game: 51.7 (24th)
ERA: 1.40 (5th)
FIP: 2.23 (4th)
xFIP: 3.27 (5th)
SIERA: 3.15 (9th)
K/9: 9.78 (t-10th)
K%: 26.3 percent (12th)
BB/9: 3.26 (17th)
BB%: 8.8 percent (17th)
K-BB%: 17.5 percent (12th)
WHIP: 0.98 (7th)
HR/9: 0.00 (t-1st)
Groundball Rate: 54.2 percent (2nd)
Opponent Batting Average: .174 (5th)
Opponent On-Base Percentage: .253 (7th)
Opponent Slugging Percentage: .188 (3rd)
Opponent OPS: .442 (3rd)
Average Exit Velocity Allowed: 82.0 mph (2nd)
Inherited runners scored/total: 3 of 3 (100.0 percent)
Breakdown:
The bullpen has been absolutely incredible over the last week — where does one even start to lump on the superlatives? Zero home runs allowed? A sub-.200 slugging percentage? A crazy-high groundball rate besides?
It’s sort of funny how much ‘they need to add to the bullpen’ has come up this week, because this was probably one of the finest weeks the unit has had in recent memory.
Recency bias wins, though — the Twins did not have the bulk of their top relievers available for the series finale in Seattle on Sunday, and instead had to white-knuckle the victory with big spots pitched by Cole Sands, Caleb Thielbar and Steven Okert.
Now from a personnel standpoint, seeing those guys work big spots does make it make sense that fans want additions. But the truth of the matter is that using all of your good relievers in the same game will make other games more lean on that front.
No team is immune from that, no matter how good the bullpen is.