Twins Week in Review: 6/28-7/4
Editor’s note: We’re a little behind this week because life got in the way. Between the July 4 holiday, my wife taking on a new career path and all three of us getting sick, things got a little backed up. Many apologies!
Welcome to The Minnesota Twins Week in Review. Every Monday, we’ll take a deep dive into the week that was for your Twins. We will post on Mondays, and look back from the previous Monday to Sunday since that’s how MLB lines up its schedule.
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And now, let’s talk to it:
Record: 1-5, .167 (26th) — 0-0 at home, 1-5 on the road
Current Fangraphs Record Projection: 75-87, .465 (3rd place, -3 wins)
Current Fangraphs Division Chances: 0.5 percent (-1.6 percent)
Current Fangraphs Playoff Chances: 0.8 percent (-2.1 percent)
Baseball Prospectus PECOTA Record Projection: 78-84 (3rd place, -4 wins)
Baseball Prospectus Division Chances: 6.1 percent (-4.4 percent)
Baseball Prospectus Playoff Chances: 6.2 percent (-6.3 percent)
Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Playoff Chances: 6.2 percent (-5.1 percent)
FiveThirtyEight Record Projection: 73-89 (3rd place, -3 wins)
FiveThirtyEight Division Chances: < 1 percent (-2.0 percent)
FiveThirtyEight Playoff Chances: < 1 percent (-3.0 percent)
Hitting (with rankings)
Batting Average: .238 (22nd)
On-Base Percentage: .320 (21st)
Slugging Percentage: .426 (16th)
OPS: .746 (17th)
wOBA: .324 (17th)
wRC+: 104 (18th)
K%: 20.6 percent (8th)
BB%: 10.1 percent (10th)
Runs Per Game: 4.50 (20th)
Batting Average (w/ RISP): .317 (10th)
Average Exit Velocity: 89.1 mph (3rd)
Honestly, other than the fact that the Twins are still hitting the ball hard, it’s hard to find anything to get too excited about here. When the pitching isn’t good, the offense has to be elite — and it wasn’t close to that last week. The walks are a nice trend and the team isn’t striking out that much, so combining that with hitting the ball hard still seems to suggest there’s more meat on the bone for the offense.
It wasn’t the case last week so much, though.
Standouts for the Twins offensively, sorted by wRC+, were as follows:
Nelson Cruz - 210 wRC+ in 22 PA
Josh Donaldson - 191 wRC+ in 19 PA
Trevor Larnach - 146 wRC+ in 25 PA
Max Kepler - 119 wRC+ in 16 PA
Alex Kirilloff - 103 wRC+ in 25 PA
Jorge Polanco - 100 wRC+ in 23 PA
Starting Pitching (with rankings)
IP: 28.1 (22nd)
IP/GS: 4.72 (20th)
Pitches/Start: 89.2 (12th)
ERA: 8.26 (27th)
FIP: 6.17 (26th)
xFIP: 5.15 (26th)
SIERA: 5.16 (26th)
K/9: 7.62 (22nd)
K%: 17.5 percent (26th)
BB/9: 4.13 (20th)
BB%: 9.5 percent (19th)
K-BB%: 8.0 percent (25th)
WHIP: 1.91 (28th)
Groundball Rate: 32.3 percent (27th)
Opponent Batting Average: .345 (29th)
Opponent On-Base Percentage: .401 (27th)
Opponent Slugging Percentage: .588 (27th)
Opponent OPS: .989 (28th)
Average Exit Velocity Allowed: 87.5 mph (13th)
I think the most surprising part is that most of these aren’t 30th in MLB. Baltimore starters actually walked more batters than they struck out last week. Angels starters had an ERA over 10.
There are myriad reasons why the Twins aren’t going anywhere this year — injuries are a big one — but the complete meltdown of the starting staff is reason No. 1 why the team will be at home in October, likely preparing for a top-10 draft pick next summer.
There’s no way to dress this up:
Relief Pitching (with rankings)
IP: 20.2 (20th)
Innings Per Game: 3.44 (17th)
Pitches Per Game: 68.0 (12th)
ERA: 6.53 (24th)
FIP: 5.30 (26th)
xFIP: 4.67 (20th)
SIERA: 4.38 (18th)
K/9: 8.27 (22nd)
K%: 20.4 percent (24th)
BB/9: 3.92 (14th)
BB%: 9.7 percent (t-11th)
K-BB%: 10.8 percent (19th)
WHIP: 1.50 (22nd)
Groundball Rate: 40.6 percent (19th)
Opponent Batting Average: .272 (22nd)
Opponent On-Base Percentage: .344 (18th)
Opponent Slugging Percentage: .469 (24th)
Opponent OPS: .813 (23rd)
Inherited Runners: 8 (t-16th)
Inherited Runners Scored: 3 (t-16th)
Inherited Runners Scored Percentage: 37.5 percent (20th)
Average Exit Velocity Allowed: 88.7 mph (19th)
I’d be shocked if you’re still reading, but thank you if you are. I won’t take any more of your time with hackneyed analysis.
It’s not good, friends.
All research is done via Sportradar’s r360, Baseball-Reference or Fangraphs unless otherwise noted.
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