Where Will the Top Free Agents Land once the Lockout Lifts?
Trying to find homes for stars when the mass movement starts up again
Hey, it’s been a minute but thank you for your patience. I’ve been sick, on vacation and all that jazz but we’re back in the saddle.
It seems as though things are looking up with regards to a CBA agreement — with Tom Verducci saying on MLB Network that free agency could (re)open as soon as Thursday evening if a deal is consummated that afternoon.
So let’s take a look at the remaining free agents who figure to land sizable deals and/or roles once the transaction moratorium is lifted.
(arranged in order of MLB Trade Rumors’ Top 50 Free Agents List with non-closing relievers omitted):
SS Carlos Correa (No. 1 on MLBTR list)
The top free-agent domino has yet to fall, but it certainly won’t take long once a deal is struck. A lot of the buzz before the offseason thought he might land with the Detroit Tigers, but they instead landed Javier Baez.
I’m going a bit off the rails here, I think. I’m going with the Dodgers. I just can’t imagine them sitting idly by, relatively speaking, and while they have Trea Turner at short and Gavin Lux in the pipeline, I could also see a scenario where AJ Pollock is the everyday DH, Chris Taylor moves to the outfield on a more regular basis and then Turner plays second base.
Prediction: Signs with Dodgers
1B Freddie Freeman (No. 3 on MLBTR list)
I’m sorry, I just can’t see him landing anywhere else other than Atlanta. I’ve seen and heard all the rumors everyone else has and also see the pessimism that a deal with the Braves didn’t get done before the lockout, but I just don’t see him leaving.
Prediction: Signs with Braves
3B/OF Kris Bryant (No. 4 on MLBTR list)
My original thought was to see Michael Conforto come back to his Pacific Northwest roots, but I think Seattle’s outfield situation is tenable enough to get a guy like Bryant, who can play the outfield but also fill the void at third base from Kyle Seager’s retirement.
Prediction: Signs with Mariners
SS Trevor Story (No. 8 on MLBTR list)
I’d LOVE to see him on the Twins and I also thought long and hard about him signing with the Phillies, but ultimately I think he’ll wind up replacing Correa in Houston on a long-term deal. Think six years, $140 million or so.
It doesn’t hurt that he was born and raised in Irving, either.
Prediction: Signs with Astros
OF Nick Castellanos (No. 10 on MLBTR list)
The Marlins made some waves with Derek Jeter departing due to differences in how the team was going to conduct business, but I really do think Castellanos would be a nice fit here. They have the young pitching and they need to surround young up-and-comer Jazz Chisholm with more offensive talent.
It’ll be the most notable drive to right of Castellanos’ career, in that case.
Prediction: Signs with Marlins
1B/OF Kyle Schwarber (No. 15 on MLBTR list)
I don’t think Jonathan Schoop is a first baseman. And if Willi Castro continues to struggle, he could certainly head back to second, which would open up first base for a guy like Schwarber. He could also see some time in left field if Akil Baddoo plays center — depending on the development of Daz Cameron — and could also DH occasionally to spell Miguel Cabrera, perhaps potentially taking over that spot on a regular basis once he retires.
Prediction: Signs with Tigers
SP Carlos Rodon (No. 18 on MLBTR list)
What team desperately needs pitching and is already gambling on arms that haven’t been super healthy in the past? The boom-or-bust Angels feel like a fit for Rodon since they’re already gambling on Noah Syndergaard and, to some extent, Shohei Ohtani to stay healthy.
But if it all clicks, this could be a ridiculous team.
Prediction: Signs with Angels
OF Seiya Suzuki (No. 20 on MLBTR list)
I feel as though there’s been plenty of Red Sox steam here, and signing him to play a corner would enable Boston to move Kiké Hernandez around, which is probably the best way to use him in the first place.
Prediction: Signs with Red Sox
1B Anthony Rizzo (No. 21 on MLBTR list)
I want to believe in the Royals, and I think they do too. So they should sign Rizzo, move Carlos Santana to DH and keep things moving with Hunter Dozier filling in all over.
Prediction: Signs with Royals
OF Jorge Soler (No. 25 on MLBTR list)
I like the idea of the Twins filling the DH role with a guy who, if everything clicks, could be called on to do a modest Nelson Cruz impersonation.
Don’t get me wrong — he’s not Nelson Cruz. But he’ll come at a much cheaper price, is much younger and could also play enough outfield to pose as an insurance policy against Alex Kirilloff and/or Trevor Larnach.
Prediction: Signs with Twins
RP Kenley Jansen (No. 29 on MLBTR list)
After two big infield additions in free agency, it’s time for the Rangers to address their pitching staff. Jansen can close out games for the Rangers with Joe Barlow backfilling a bullpen that posted a respectable 4.13 ERA in 2021 (17th in MLB).
Prediction: Signs with Rangers
OF Michael Conforto (No. 32 on MLBTR list)
The current MLB.com and ESPN depth charts have Matt Vierling starting in left and center field. While Conforto most likely won’t take up the latter, he could definitely fill left for a team with quite a bit of talent but quite a few missed expectations in recent seasons.
Prediction: Signs with Phillies
SP Clayton Kershaw (No. 33 on MLBTR list)
I think it’s Los Angeles, Arlington or bust for Kershaw. I’m taking the latter. It makes no sense to spend what the Rangers have spent to this point and stop there.
Prediction: Signs with Rangers
SP Yusei Kikuchi (No. 34 on MLBTR list)
He’s a lefty with a big fastball, and most importantly he’s coming off a few shaky seasons with the Mariners.
This is ripe for the Twins to pounce like they usually do on players whose value is lower than expected. I think a two-year deal in the $25-28 million range would be a nice fit for both.
Prediction: Signs with Twins
SP Zack Greinke (No. 40 on MLBTR list)
Greinke isn’t really the sentimental type, but he’s from Florida and could be the next Charlie Morton-esque salvo for the Rays to fire. They’ve already done so on Corey Kluber; why not another late 30-something?
Prediction: Signs with Rays
OF Eddie Rosario (No. 41 on MLBTR list)
The White Sox have a team flush with players from Latin America, and adding Rosario would give the team even more flair — in addition to potentially letting him and Eloy Jimenez duke it out to see who gets to/has to DH.
He’s already signed with a division rival once. Why wouldn’t he try to stick it to the Twins again? If not Chicago, I think the Marlins are a tremendous fit.
Prediction: Signs with White Sox
IF/OF Jonathan Villar (No. 43 on MLBTR list)
The Rays love their versatility and Yandy Diaz doesn’t have the best track record of staying healthy. They also seem to love guys who don’t stay in one place for too long, for one reason or another.
Prediction: Signs with Rays
DH Nelson Cruz (No. 47 on MLBTR list)
The ring chase ends here one way or the other for Cruz, who is winning a war against Father Time in ways nobody ever could have imagined.
Prediction: Signs with Padres
SP Danny Duffy (No. 48 on MLBTR list)
He knows the division, but the Royals seem to want to go in a more youthful direction. The Twins are about a step behind the Royals in acclimating their youngsters to the big leagues, so it’s a nice fit for a guy who was excellent when healthy last season (2.51 ERA, 65-22 K/BB in 61.0 innings).
Prediction: Signs with Twins