2022-2023 Offseason Blueprint: The One Where Falvey and Levine do Falvey and Levine Things
This is the seventh offseason of the Falvey-Levine regime; what will it look like if they stick to the playbook?
For better or worse, we have a pretty good idea of how Derek Falvey and Thad Levine like to run a baseball team by now. This will be the seventh offseason they’ve presided over, and they’ve got a fairly consistent playbook.
Will they be aggressive? Yes, kind of.
Will they spend money? Yes, kind of.
Will they do it on their own terms? Yes, absolutely.
Will they do anything that makes them uncomfortable (especially regarding length of contracts)? No way.
Have they really been aggressive? Well, they’ve handed out massive contracts to Josh Donaldson and Carlos Correa in recent years. Maybe those deals wouldn’t be considered aggressive for teams like the Angels who shell out money left and right, but we have to grade on a curve here. Ricky Nolasco (four years, $49 million) and Ervin Santana (four years, $55 million) were big-money deals under previous leadership.
Do they spend money? Well yes, both based on grading on a curve and also just by the fact that they gave Correa the highest AAV for an infielder in MLB history.
But both things circle back to the third one — on their own terms.
Falvey and Levine don’t sleep — they wait. And they wait. And much to the dismay of their fanbase, they wait a bit longer.
Donaldson officially signed with the Twins on Jan. 22. And if that felt late, Correa signed precisely two months later on the calendar (two years later, of course) this last March 22.
It’s not just those two. Lance Lynn signed late. So did Logan Morrison. The Sonny Gray trade was in March. So was the trade that brought back Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez. The Taylor Rogers trade was in April. The Kenta Maeda trade was in February. Marwin Gonzalez signed in late February.
You get the idea.
Much to the dismay of Twins fans, Falvey and Levine operate on their own timeline. It’s not entirely unlike Joe Mauer never swinging at a first pitch, even if it’s down broadway for a strike. Falvey and Levine are slavish to their own discipline — even if it drives casuals crazy.
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So what if Falvey and Levine have an offseason that is, more or less, by the books based on how they operate? It might drive fans crazy. It might be good process. It might still end in a 78-84 season. The possibilities are endless!
But can the Twins have a “Falvey and Levine” offseason while they “have a freaking offseason!” like, are those two things diametrically opposed to one another?
Let’s talk to it:
Sign Chris Bassitt
Newsflash — it’s going to be hard to sign Correa. Signing him the way they did checked off two of their boxes, as he signed late and didn’t get the long-term deal he was otherwise hoping for.
There’s no chance that happens again, and while we have a pretty good indication that they’re willing to bend or outright break their existing mold with Correa, statistically speaking it’s still more likely he plays elsewhere next year just due to the sheer number of teams who will show interest.
Let’s assume he doesn’t sign here. The Twins are in a fairly good spot financially to the point where they can address some very specific needs on this team — shortstop or otherwise.
So let’s say it isn’t at shortstop necessarily (more on that later).
I like this rotation probably more than anyone, but getting one more pitcher who can — if not necessarily be an ace — start a first or second game of a postseason series seems like an obvious move.
I also don’t know if I see the Twins shopping at the top of the market. Jacob deGrom could represent a perfect storm, as his age and relative lack of health mean he’ll get a deal probably fairly similar to teammate Max Scherzer’s (short, but super high AAV). That could appeal to the Twins, but it’s a sheer numbers game as what team wouldn’t love to have the best pitcher on the planet for the next, say, three years?
But if the Twins stay in the same rotation and age range, there might be a nice fit in Chris Bassitt.
Bassitt turns 34 on Feb. 22 — he’s exactly three years younger than me, eek — and was part of the mass exodus out of Oakland this last offseason. After an inauspicious start to his career, Bassitt’s post-30 run has been nothing short of incredible.
Over the last four seasons — his ages-30 to -33 years — he’s gone 42-20 with a 3.31 ERA, 8.6 K/9 and a FIP of 3.75. A pitcher like that can easily be overshadowed when playing on the same team as deGrom and Scherzer, but he fits perfectly into that Sonny Gray archetype where a guy isn’t a household name or necessarily an ace, but is a damn good pitcher every fifth day.
Ideally the Twins would probably like Bassitt on a two-year deal for, say, $48-50 million. But if Bassitt wants a three-year deal, that shouldn’t be a non-starter for the Twins as the righty has thrown more than 100 innings just three times in his career (though was on pace to if the 2020 season was of normal length). Normally a lack of innings would be troubling from a sample-size standpoint, but in my estimation it actually works in Bassitt’s favor as a lack of mileage on his arm.
If he’d take three years and $60 million, he’d be a really, really nice get for the Twins.
Sign Mitch Haniger
This front office loves the idea that they can fix a player. In Haniger, it isn’t so much fixing him as it is keeping him on the field. That’s a scary thought based on how the Twins fared at doing that sort of thing last year, but with a new training staff who knows what the future holds?
Haniger has two top-20 MVP finishes in his career, has an OPS+ above 100 in each of his last five seasons and swings it from the right side. He’s not young (32 in December) and won’t require a huge contract due to not only his age and health, but also because his skillset — corner masher, walks optional and not much in the way of defense — isn’t valued all that highly in today’s game.
Think of it this way…if he’d have been a free agent after his age-27 season in 2018 (.285/.366/.493 with 26 home runs) he’d have probably landed a five-plus-year deal worth somewhere near $100 million. If he’d have been a free agent after last season (age-30 campaign) he’d probably have gotten four years and something like $60 million.
Now, he’s coming off playing just 57 games, has no qualifying offer attached to him and hit a respectable but not world-beating .246/.308/.429 (114 OPS+).
He’ll probably get one year and $10-12 million — right in the sweet spot for your Twins in terms of financial flexibility and also usefulness on this roster.
I’m also assuming a Max Kepler trade in this instance, with no idea what to expect in a return. It probably won’t be meaningful MLB talent, so it won’t matter as much for this exercise.
Sign Elvis Andrus
Andrus looked like a completely different player with the White Sox last season, hitting .271/.309/.464 over the final 43 games after four-plus years of modest production between the Rangers and A’s.
Now he’s a free agent, and it’s hard to envision a more Twins-friendly bridge to Royce Lewis at the position than Andrus, who is entering his age-34 season and will likely sign for one year and something like $7-8 million. If Lewis doesn’t work at short, the Twins will eventually move on with Brooks Lee, or again look to the free-agent market in years to come.
In the meantime, Andrus is a more-than-capable stopgap who has ties going way back to the Levine days with the Texas Rangers. If the Twins don’t sign a big-time shortstop, this feels like a gimme.
Sign Luke Voit
Jose Abreu would look great here. He really would.
But you can’t tell me this guy doesn’t look great in his own regard:
Voit is a right-handed hitter with a career slash of .254/.342/.476. He doesn’t have much of a discernible platoon split — which someone on Twitter seemed to think was an issue? — and gives the team another right-handed option at DH and first base, which is especially clutch with Miranda moving over to third.
He’s coming off a down year, so he’ll be cheap — I’d guess one year, $6 million — with a very reasonable chance that he produces just as well as Abreu for one-third of the money. Then again, if Father Time hasn’t been able to find Abreu while he’s been stationary on the South Side, what are the odds they’ll find his change of address paperwork?
Again though, Voit falls right in lockstep with how Falvey and Levine do business. If they commit fully to this bit, they’ll get a bunch of good MLB players with room to improve at a reasonable rate.
But I also felt like they’d done that a few other times when seasons went sideways (like last year, for one).
Sign Omar Narvaez
This is basically the autopen signature of every blueprint. The Twins need a lefty-swinging catcher to platoon with Jeffers. They may as well get one who is a great defender and shouldn’t cost that much after a down offensive season.
Sign Brad Hand
He’s a capable left-handed reliever who is from Minnesota, will likely sign a one-year deal and has some late-inning experience. This signing will make all the sense in the world until he inexplicably allows a grand slam to Myles Straw to clinch a pivotal late-season loss in 2023.
So, where does this leave us?
C- Ryan Jeffers
1B- Luke Voit
2B- Jorge Polanco
3B- Jose Miranda
SS- Elvis Andrus
LF- Alex Kirilloff/Trevor Larnach
CF- Byron Buxton
RF- Mitch Haniger
DH- Luis Arraez
C- Omar Narvaez
IF- Nick Gordon
IF- Kyle Farmer
OF- Kyle Garlick
SP- Chris Bassitt
SP- Tyler Mahle
SP- Sonny Gray
SP- Joe Ryan
SP- Bailey Ober/Louie Varland/Josh Winder/Simeon Woods Richardson
RP- Jhoan Duran
RP- Jorge Lopez
RP- Griffin Jax
RP- Jorge Alcala
RP- Kenta Maeda
RP- Caleb Thielbar
RP- Emilio Pagan/Jovani Moran
RP- Brad Hand
The final analysis:
If the Twins don’t take the route of spending big on a stud, I think this is probably the best path they can take to getting back to AL Central relevance. I would really like this roster — which seems to be the kiss of death in recent seasons.